HIGH summer temperatures over 42 degrees won’t return to the North East until January 2016 and 2011 will be another wet year, says a retired weather officer living at Wangaratta.
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Peter Nelson, who worked with the CSIRO for 34 years and has continued long-term forecasting as a hobby since 1964, successfully predicted a wetter than average 2010 in 2009.
Mr Nelson said he based his forecasts on an analog statistical method utilising long-term weather records from 30 stations in Australia including those in north-west Australia, Alice Springs and throughout NSW and Queensland.
“It appears that we have seen the last of the very high summer temperatures over 42 degrees which were rather frequent from January 2003 to January 2010,” he said.
“I expect the next big heatwave in January 2016 although early 2013 could surprise.”
Mr Nelson also expects the wet weather to continue throughout 2011, predicting above-average rainfall this month, and in March, June, July, August, September and October.
He said July would be the wettest since 1986, with about 150 millimetres of rain and floods expected.
“This year’s weather is part of a larger pattern, but it won’t be completely similar to 2010,” Mr Nelson said.
“The winter will be wetter. June and July in 2010 were a bit dry.
“We are going through a cycle. In the past when there has been a long period of dry weather it has been followed by cooler and wetter weather.
“There was a similar dry period between 1876 and 1886 and again between 1936 and 1946; after each one there was 10 years of very wet weather.”
