EVEN the bookies have given up on NSW Labor. Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt is a rank outsider in her electorate, as are Verity Firth in Balmain, Frank Terenzini in Maitland and Jodi McKay in Newcastle.
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Centrebet's preliminary odds, published today, show the bookies are sure Labor is dead in the inner city and the Hunter.
Ms Tebbutt is at $2.25 to $1.58 for Fiona Byrnes of the Greens. Ms Firth is $3.70 against $1.24 for the Greens' Jamie Parker.
Ms Firth's fight for Balmain was spectacularly unsettled on January 28, after her husband Matthew Chesher, the chief-of-staff to the Roads Minister David Borger, was charged with buying an ecstasy pill.
Mr Terenzini is tipped to lose his seat, with the Liberal Robyn Parker a favourite at $1.52 to $2.40.
In Newcastle Ms McKay is an outsider against John Tate, an independent who is also the lord mayor.
Neil Evans of Centrebet said punters generally showed more nous than pollsters.
''We're talking about very connected people who are not betting to lose,'' he said. ''The closer you get to an election, the more informed the money is. You can take a snap of 500 people in a poll, but they might think something one day and something different the next.''
Sportsbet's odds are even more damning. It puts a win by Ms Tebbutt at $4.50 to Ms Byrne's $1.10, and Ms Firth at $7 to $1.28 for Mr Parker.
As for who will be premier, 90 per cent of Centrebet punters say Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell.
It is not all bad news for Labor. Betting agencies say Kristina Keneally and her predecessor as premier, Nathan Rees, will both win their seats.
Centrebet has priced a win by Ms Keneally in Heffron at $1.06, with the Liberal and Greens candidates both long shots at $8 and $9.50.
Mr Rees, who bypassed a rank-and-file ballot to be endorsed as the candidate by the party's national executive, appears to have more competition in Toongabbie - his odds are at $1.74 to $2 for the Coalition.
Sportsbet has already compiled odds for who will be the Labor leader at the 2015 election, and it does not look good for Ms Keneally.
She is equal third with Mr Borger, behind Transport Minister John Robertson and Police Minister Michael Daley.
In the lead-up to the 2010 federal election, Centrebet's seat-by-seat odds showed a hung parliament, with Labor holding 75 seats, the Coalition 71, independents three and the Greens one - pretty close to the actual result of Labor 72, Coalition 73, independents four and Greens one.
