DEAN Limbach has crunched the numbers.
He knows he has kicked 51 goals this season, 10 fewer than Strang Medal leader Adam Prior, playing in a team on the bottom of the ladder that has given him far less supply than most key forwards.
He also knows his old club, Montomorency, is on top of the Northern football league table and is favoured to win this year’s premiership while his new team, Wodonga Raiders, is in the running for the Ovens and Murray’s wooden spoon.
And he knows the Raiders must win today to be any chance of avoiding that fate.
Things could have been seriously different this season, had he stayed in Melbourne or joined another club.
And is he disappointed?
Would he have kicked more goals in a stronger team?
But does he regret making his move?
Importantly, for the Raiders, his answer to that was the most emphatic response of all.
“I couldn’t be happier,” Limbach, 26, said this week.
“Montmorency on top doesn’t bother me and if they win the flag I’ll be the first to be happy for them.
“But I don’t regret moving one bit.
“The Raiders have been nothing but good to me.
“Thee way the club has looked after us has been fantastic.
“I saw the article about winning the medal if I had played in a finals side but I don’t look at it that way.
“I’m only 10 behind the leader, which is not a bad effort, but I just want to finish the year off as strongly as I can.
“We’ve got faith in Kenny (coach Stevenson) and things are already looking up.”
Limbach, who is already locked in for another year at Birallee Park, isn’t concerned about enduring another season like this one.
He knows things can change, and quickly.
“Look at North Albury and what they have done,” Limbach said.
“Without knowing much about the league, I thought we’d be nudging for finals and we were one and one after two rounds.
“Things were looking OK but we just haven’t had the players.
“Our best, Dools (Mark Doolan) went down and we just don’t have old and big enough bodies.
“It has been a disappointing year but the club has turned over a lot of players.
“It is heading in the right direction but there were a lot who didn’t want to be a part of it, for some unknown reason.”
He’s been in the competition five minutes, in relative terms, but Limbach has already picked up on a few O and M’s nuances.
Corowa-Rutherglen’s shock win over the Hoppers last week didn’t help the Raiders’ cause ahead of today’s crunch clash, but like Stevenson, Limbach didn’t have an issue with the Roos running out shock winners.
“It was good for the competition,” he said.
“It’s a bit lop-sided with Albury and Yarrawonga dominating so it was good to see.
“Football is a funny game and anything can happen.”
And it’s that fact that has Limbach full of optimism today.
The Raiders must beat Corowa-Rutherglen or they will take out the wooden spoon.
“We’re going into this thinking we should definitely win,” he said.
“Last time we played them, we lost in probably the worst conditions I have played in, just about.
“Hopefully, we’ll have their measure in the dry.
“We want to finish on a positive note and we expect to win our last two games.”
And if Limbach gets enough supply to influence the contest, there’s every chance of that happening.