Gai Waterhouse has won seven Sydney trainers premierships, trained more than 130 group 1 winners including six Golden Slippers, a Melbourne Cup and a Caulfield Cup. So you would think an Albury Gold Cup would be a walk in the park for racing’s first lady. But leading Albury trainer Brett Cavanough says Gai can't win.
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BOOKMAKERS expect Self Sense and Kourkam to fight out the finish of tomorrow’s Albury Gold Cup.
And after studying the form, I find it hard to disagree.
The scratching of the topweight Lidari has only enhanced their chances.
It has been a big talking point in the countdown to the cup and always been a contentious rule that once acceptances are finalised and the topweight is scratched that horses can’t be re-handicapped.
It’s probably not fair to all the trainers involved and there should be a genuine topweight and then the scale to handicap the remainder of the field.
But that’s the cards you are dealt and the hand you have to play with.
Self Sense is a deserved favourite and is trained by David Brideoake who is a previous winner of the race and knows what it takes to win an Albury Cup.
I bumped into Brideoake at the Adelaide yearling sales a fortnight ago and he was quick to spruik to me he had the winner of the Albury Cup.
I rang him after the barrier draw to see what he thought of drawing 14 and he said the barrier was perfect because he would now get a bigger price about his horse.
Tactically, the alley isn’t too big a concern because he likes to get back in his races and there should be a bit of give in the track which will also suit him down to the ground.
Kourkam is another galloper with undeniable credentials.
Tony McEvoy has probably got bigger fish to fry with this horse, who looks like a really progressive galloper.
It would be a major shock if he finished outside the placings and is one of the few horse in the race with his form line going in an upward spiral.
Queenstown is on the third line of betting and bookmakers will write plenty of tickets for the Gai Waterhouse-trained galloper.
But in my opinion the tickets will simply end up as confetti.
Yes, the mare has got a superstar trainer and won the Grafton Cup in July.
But her form since is questionable at best.
If Queenstown was flying, Gai would be racing her in Sydney over the carnival and the mare wouldn’t be going around at Albury.
I think recent history has shown if you send you second stringers to Albury and expect to go home with the cup — you’re dreaming and end up going home with your tail between your legs.
Faust is another well in the market.
The Kurt Goldman-trained galloper won the Canberra Cup impressively but finished outside the placings at Rosehill on Saturday and the quick back-up has to be a query..
But you always have to respect the form out of the Canberra feature and Jacquinot Bay won the race last year before finishing third at Albury.
So for mine, Faust has to be considered among the leading hopes.
A quick glance at the form of Verdant and it doesn’t look too flattering.
But never underestimate the Robert Smerdon factor.
Smerdon is a good trainer full stop — but once you get to 2000 metres — he is one of the best going around.
I might be wrong, but there is a few horses that will be fairly well supported in betting that I simply think can’t win.
Devonshire Duke heads the list and is trained by Mike Moroney.
Moroney has been trying to win an Albury Cup for a while now.
But judging by the horses he brings, I think the big Kiwi trainer mainly comes to Albury for a drink and the atmosphere and chucks a couple on the float to justify coming.
On paper it looks to be a genuine race which usually results in only a fit horse saluting.
It could come down to a real slogfest over the final furlong and hopefully Price Of Glory, is the one with the fresh legs after a cushy run.
My instructions to jockey Ritchie Bensley will be basic: Go back, get cover and don’t produce him to around the 600 metre mark and get a tow into the race and expose him late out wide on the track.
That’s how he runs his best races.
The winner is going to need his fair share of luck and that’s where a good pilot proves priceless.
For the record I will tip Kourkam to win from Self Sense with anything to fill the third hole.
Queenstown is on the third line of betting and bookmakers will write plenty of tickets for the Gai Waterhouse-trained galloper.
But in my opinion the tickets will simply end up as confetti.
Gai Waterhouse has won seven Sydney trainers premierships, trained more than 130 group 1 winners including six Golden Slippers, a Melbourne Cup and a Caulfield Cup. So you would think an Albury Gold Cup would be a walk in the park for racing’s first lady. But leading Albury trainer Brett Cavanough says ...