Labor Left's Kim Carr is set to be dumped from the frontbench by his own faction when the ALP caucus meets in Canberra on Friday.
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The move shapes as a test for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who will be pressed to intervene and save his Victorian ally from demotion, while Senator Carr's industrial base in the Victorian unions are already mobilising to fight the demotion.
Senator Carr was a key backer of Mr Shorten in the 2013 Labor leadership contest - instead of backing Left candidate Anthony Albanese - but despite having just secured another six-year term, he looks set to languish on the backbench.
Several sources in the Labor Left told Fairfax Media that Senator Carr had lost the support of Left frontbenchers Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong, Jenny Macklin, Mr Albanese, Mark Butler and Catherine King, as well as factional conveners Andrew Giles, Pat Conroy and Anne Urquhart.
One source said the move was payback for Senator Carr's behind the scenes maneuvering at the 2015 Labor party conference, in which he was seen to have publicly criticised Ms Plibersek and Ms Wong over their handling of the contentious vote over asylum seeker policy platform changes.
"People are fed up with this pattern of behaviour. Now this is a test of Bill. He supports the factional system, it's his model," one MP said.
The most likely person to replace him is the newly elected NSW Left MP Linda Burney.
And Victorian Labor Right junior minister David Feeney also looks set to be booted from the frontbench, with rising star Clare O'Neil likely to take his place as one of five Victorian Right frontbenchers.
NSW Right frontbencher Ed Husic is also in line for promotion.
Senator Carr is a legend of the Victorian Socialist Left faction, and has survived being axed before, notably by Julia Gillard who first kicked him out of cabinet to the outer ministry and then to the backbench because of his support for Kevin Rudd's insurgency.
The powerful and large group of left-wing unions in Senator Carr's home state have thrown their support behind him, highlighting his strong representation of working people and unions.
Rail, Tram and Bus Union Victorian secretary Luba Grigorovitch said Senator Carr had the backing of the industrial Left.
The industrial left of the Socialist Left includes the CFMEU, Manufacturing Workers Union, the Community and Public Sector Union, United Voice and Financial Services Union.
Ms Grigorovitch said the union movement expected him to remain on the frontbench.
"Kim has effectively supported the Australian manufacturing through the turmoil of the Abbott-Turnbull years – advocating policy to provide support for stronger Australian industry," Ms Grigorovitch said.
"Kim has a long record of standing up for working people and is broadly supported by these people across the state. It is important that representation of the Left is not focused only on the inner-city."
CFMEU state secretary John Setka said the move against Senator Carr was being pushed by a "few egos in Sydney" who had held "clandestine meetings" during the election when they should have been working to see Labor elected.
"No one has done more for manufacturing than Kim," Mr Setka told Fairfax. "He has done a lot for innovation, I wish we had a few more politicians with his passion."
The outspoken union boss also said Australia's once proud car industry may have survived had Senator Carr been in charge.
Senator Carr, once described as a "factional Dalek" and famous for his three-piece suits and his championing of the car industry and science, has ruled Victorian Labor with Right senator Stephen Conroy under the so-called "stability agreement" with an iron fist.
The new Labor frontbench will have 15 members from the Right, 14 from the Left and independent Andrew Leigh in the 30-person shadow ministry.