THE flag might be a foregone conclusion with Albury undefeated and charging towards a third straight crown but the race for spots in the top five is captivating. Myrtleford, Wangaratta and Wodonga Raiders could all stake a claim to be the third-best team in the competition but one of them will miss out on September action altogether. It’s an exercise fraught with danger, but we take a look at how the final 15 matches of the home and away season might play out.
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Albury (15-0, 60pts, 242.50%)
The run home: Wodonga (a) – win; Wangaratta Rovers (h) – win; Yarrawonga (a) – win
Prospects: The Tigers are on track to repeat their 2009 heroics of going through the season undefeated. Josh Mellington and Setanta O’hAilpin headline one of the most potent forward lines the competition has ever seen and no side has got within a bull’s roar of them when Daniel Cross has played. With Melbourne out of the AFL finals race, that’s unlikely to change.
Lavington (10-5, 40pts, 130.38%)
The run home: Corowa-Rutherglen (a) – win; Yarrawonga (h) – win; Wangaratta Rovers (a) – win
Prospects: The Panthers suffered a shock loss to Wodonga last round but will comfortably secure a top-three finish. Have had their fair share of adversity with Matt Pendergast retiring and Luke Gestier (knee) and Brant Dickson (ankle) suffering serious injuries but, as always, they back system over stars and remain one of the toughest teams in the league to beat.
Yarrawonga (9-5-1, 38pts, 128.01%)
The run home: North Albury (h) – win; Lavington (a) – loss; Albury (h) – loss
Prospects: The Pigeons have lost five of their past eight matches and, all of a sudden, their hold on a top-three position is shaky. If Myrtleford wins its final three matches, which it could easily do, the Pigeons will likely slip to fourth. Brad O’Connor has completed a two-match suspension and Brandon Symes is back from a long-term injury but Craig Ednie (calf) and Tim Cooper (AC joint) remain only slim chances to play finals in a blow to the Pigeons’ hopes of doing any damage in September.
Myrtleford (8-7, 32pts, 95.93%)
The run home: Wangaratta (h) – win; Wodonga Raiders (a) – loss; Corowa-Rutherglen (a) – win
Prospects: The Saints have made a stunning rise from wooden spooners and can seal a finals berth with victory over Wangaratta, assuming they defeat Corowa-Rutherglen in the final round. They can finish as high as third if they win their final three matches, but by the same token, will likely miss the top-five if they fail to beat one of Wangaratta or Wodonga Raiders. The Saints deserve to start slight favourites against the Magpies, meaning we’re backing them for their first finals appearance since 2006.
Wangaratta (7-7-1, 30pts, 105.11%)
The run home: Myrtleford (a) – loss; Corowa-Rutherglen (h) – win; Wodonga (a) – win
Prospects: The Magpies’ season goes on the line at McNamara Reserve. Win that, and they’re in the box seat for their first taste of September action in five years, even with a tricky final-round encounter against Wodonga. Michael Newton didn’t play when the Saints won easily in round seven but whether he’s enough to turn around a 10-goal hiding remains to be seen.
Wodonga Raiders (7-8, 28pts, 108.76%)
The run home: Wangaratta Rovers (a) – win; Myrtleford (h) – win; North Albury (a) – win
Prospects: The equation is simple for the Raiders. Win their last matches or kiss finals goodbye. Dean Heta, Todd Bryant, Matt Neagle and Will Donaghey will be among the inclusions against the Rovers, meaning their season should be defined by their clash with Myrtleford at Birallee Park. The Saints couldn’t get through the Raiders’ press when the sides met in round eight and may find it difficult away from home against an opponent playing for its season.
Wodonga (7-8, 28pts, 98.64%)
The run home: Albury (h) – loss; North Albury (a) – win; Wangaratta (h) – loss
Prospects: The Bulldogs have produced an inspired month of football, winning four of their past five matches and even in defeat, they led Yarrawonga for most of the day. Dean Harding would back his men to win a final if they made it but they appear to have left their run a fraction late.
Wang Rovers (6-9, 24pts, 72.38%)
The run home: Wodonga Raiders (h) – loss; Albury (a) – loss; Lavington (h) – loss
Prospects: The Rovers have fallen away after a bright start to the season, which included wins over Myrtleford and arch-rivals Wangaratta. Will fancy their chances against the Raiders after pushing them all day at Birallee Park in round seven.
North Albury (5-10, 20pts, 86.01%)
The run home: Yarrawonga (a) – loss; Wodonga (h) – loss; Wodonga Raiders (h) – loss
Prospects: The Hoppers started promisingly by winning four of their first six matches but inexperience has caught up with them. Have the basis of a super midfield in Dom Brew and Shaun Mannagh.
Corowa-R’glen (0-15, 0pts, 35.72%)
The run home: Lavington (h) – loss; Wangaratta (a) – loss; Myrtleford (h) – loss
Prospects: The Roos look destined to end the season winless but 2016 was all about education for Terry Burgess and his young charges. Have had 15 debutantes who will be better for the experience.
PREDICTED LADDER
- Albury: 18-0, 72pts
- Lavington: 13-5, 52pts
- Yarrawonga: 10-7-1, 42pts
- Myrtleford: 10-8, 40pts
- Wod Raiders: 10-8, 40pts
- Wangaratta: 9-7-1, 38pts
- Wodonga: 8-10, 32pts
- Wang Rovers: 6-12, 24pts
- North Albury: 5-13, 20pts
- Corowa-R’glen: 0-18, 0pts