THE likelihood of floods downstream of Lake Hume in coming months is high.
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Considering we are about to enter the traditional spring rain season, and the Bureau of Meteorology is telling us we face a wet spring and early summer, low-lying areas will almost certainly face inundation.
The Hume storage is already above 90 per cent and is increasing at a steady rate which could see it reach capacity within weeks if current situations remain.
Forecast heavy rain on Wednesday and into Thursday will only add to inflows.
It is welcome news WaterNSW will test its Early Warning Network today.
The early warning system notifies people to changes in Murray River flows downsteam of Hume Dam.
Preparation is crucial, as landholders in flood-prone areas know, and WaterNSW has warned people at risk to put their plans in action.
Vigilance is important as conditions can change quickly. State Emergency Service websites have good information on flood tips – before, during and after – and warnings. The Bureau of Meteorology also offers flood warning services.
Lake Hume serves mainly as a water supply for Albury, Wodonga and towns along the Murray, and its level fluctuates throughout the seasons but it also serves to absorb Upper Murray inflows, such as spring rain and snow melt to mitigate potential floods downstream.
The fuller it is the less room it has to hold inflows and there would be few living downstream of Hume Dam unaware of the current high water level, and most would have already moved equipment and stock to higher ground.
Water authorities can control the rise to a degree by increasing the outflows, which are now just 5000 megalitres a day, with a normal capacity downstream of 25,000 megalitres.
Dartmouth storage is only 57 per cent of capacity so can certainly act as a buffer to absorb inflows but floods are a fact of life for people living on waterways and flood plains.
The concern now is that many flood plains have been turned into housing estates and people living in those estates may not have flood experience.
The question those families must ask themselves now is: “Are we prepared if the man-made levees around the estate cannot hold back a flood?”