I MAY be in the minority, but I give Lavington a massive chance against Albury.
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The Panthers’ confidence will be sky-high after a big win over a Yarrawonga side that, while undermanned, came out and took it right up to them early last week.
They looked organised, play their roles really well and have enough dangerous options forward if they can get their hands on the footy around the contest.
Justin Koschitzke looks as though he is getting around as good as he has for a while, Adam Prior keeps hitting up hard at the footy and Luke Garland continues to be a serious headache for opposition coaches.
Both sides have fantastic defensive records this year, being ranked one and two in defence with very different methods.
Lavington has a very flexible back-end that can play on a lot of different types and sizes.
The Panthers will press up hard to try to cause repeat entries for their dangerous forward line.
Coach James Saker leads the back-end well and is happy to take the most dangerous forward. I would expect him to take Josh Mellington on Saturday.
With plenty of rain around Albury-Wodonga in the past week, and a chance of more on Saturday, I expect this to help the Panthers keep the scoring down and help them stay in striking range.
Albury’s defensive numbers are based a lot around denying the opposition the ball.
Generally, if the Tigers’ opponents do get their hands on the footy, the pressure, or perceived pressure, applied is very high and it causes rushed use of the ball that gets mopped up by Luke Packer, Chris Hyde, Brayden O’Hara, Daniel Cross and Dean Polo.
Those guys love to get behind the footy and rush it forward in waves, with instinctive quick hands, until they get one out who has the easier kicking option.
The Panthers will be working hard to shut down all the exits from the stoppages and make the Tigers scrap their kicks out of congestion to give their backline a platform to provide plenty of rebound from.
But with the inside grunt of Joel Mackie and Alex Goodall, the clean hands of O’Hara, Polo and Hyde, the freakish ability of Cross to make every possession an effective one to a teammate with space and the speed and step of Elliott Powell, it is a daunting task.
If the Panthers can come out and hit the scoreboard early, limit Albury’s ability to score quickly and slow their movement down, I can see them being in it right up to their ears. However, that’s easier said than done against a side that has been at a completely different level all season.
- Tip: Tigers by 13 points
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