With 81.8 per cent of ballots counted on Sunday, the Nationals incumbent had 45.3 per cent of the primary vote and would hold the seat of Ovens Valley if that trend continued.

“I’m not about to claim the seat. I’d like to see those other 9000 votes counted, but I’m comfortable where we’re at at this stage,” he told The Border Mail on Saturday night.

“I’m delighted with the support that the constituents have shown in me.

“It’s a nasty game and people have chosen to look over all that rubbish that goes on in election years.

“They’ve voted for me with full confidence that they’re happy with the work I’m doing and they’ve supported me. I’m thrilled with that.”

A trial over allegations of real estate fraud scheduled for next year, which Mr McCurdy has claimed was timed as an attack on him in an election year, was expected to have an impact.

His vote was well down on the 55 per cent he won at the last election in 2014.

“When you look at Labor, the Greens and independents all teaming up against you –  everyone talks about safe seats, but no matter how good your margin is it’s still a tricky game,” he said.

Despite the huge swing against them, the Nationals were still ahead in every booth from Saturday election except for Eldorado, which went in favour of Tammy Atkins.

The Ovens Valley Nationals, including federal Senator Bridget McKenzie, celebrated at the Wangaratta campaign office.

As volunteers were nervously counting numbers, she was one of the first to see victory, putting her arm around Mr McCurdy and saying “you’ve got it”.

They were disappointed with the statewide result which had the Coalition losing seats, but Mr McCurdy said “the voters always get it right”.

“It looks horrible and I don’t think anyone can explain that,” he said.

“There will obviously be some soul-searching in the next few days and weeks. I’ve lost a lot of good colleagues out of the Liberal Party.”

Labor and independent challengers were not able to take the seat of Ovens Valley away from the Coalition, but did succeed in bringing the Nationals’ primary vote below 50 per cent for only the second time since 1982.

Speaking at a gathering for volunteers at the Plough Inn at Tarrawingee on Saturday night, independent Tammy Atkins stopped short of conceding, saying the result “isn’t looking as rosy as we would have liked”.

“We have achieved what would have been completely impossible if we go back six years,” she said.

“What we do know is that we were standing in the fourth-safest conservative seat in Victoria and now we’re in one of the most marginal seats.”

Ms Atkins alluded to the fact Mr McCurdy still has to face a criminal trial next year in relation to real estate fraud charges.

“Between now and either the by-election or the next state election, we’re going to be watching all of the investment and the attention that we are going to get,” she said.

“It’s pretty damn exciting to live where we live right now.”

As of Sunday, Ms Atkins had 19.86 per cent of the vote and Labor’s Kate Doyle 19.99 per cent.

Ms Doyle said despite the swing and passionate supporters in Ovens Valley, Labor would have to put in the groundwork if the party was to be a chance next election.

“Of course I would have loved more, but it’s a move in the right direction,” she said.

“I just hope that Tim McCurdy works in the best interests of the whole electorate. Congratulations to him, he needs to keep in mind that it is a changing electorate.”

Ms Doyle spent election night celebrating not just the Labor result, but her mother’s 88th birthday.

Meanwhile, Nationals deupty leader Steph Ryan easily retained Euroa with 60.8 per cent of the primary vote ahead of Labor’s Fionna Deppeler-Morton with 27.7 per cent and former Benalla mayor Don Firth with 6.99 per cent as an independent.

Wangaratta-raised Daniel Andrews will be the first two-term premier in Victoria since Steve Bracks.

​MORE VICTORIAN ELECTION COVERAGE:

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