AN independent candidate looks set to win a Murray River seat in the Victorian election.
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However, it won’t be in the North East of the state, despite the hype and attention around the contests in Benambra and Ovens Valley involving independent hopefuls Jacqui Hawkins, Jenny O’Connor and Tammy Atkins.
Instead Mildura in the North West of the state is the rural district most likely to turn independent and follow Shepparton in having a non-aligned member represent it in the Victorian parliament.
In her third consecutive tilt in the electorate, former Mildura deputy mayor Ali Cupper has drawn 33 per cent of the primary vote.
By comparison in Wodonga-based Benambra, Ms Hawkins has 16.77 per cent of first preferences and Ms O’Connor is on 12.91.
In Ovens Valley, Ms Atkins has just under 20 per cent.
Naturally, all three independents are pleased at having carved out such figures and have proclaimed the seats as now being marginal.
But why couldn’t they go over the top and win?
In Benambra there were a string of factors.
Firstly, the Liberal candidate Bill Tilley had the advantage of incumbency which ensures he is well known and can promote his work over four years rather than just in a campaign.
He is also seen as a good bloke and that reputation would count for a solid block of his votes, alongside the traditional conservative nature of Benambra.
Nevertheless, Mr Tilley lost a big slab of the primary vote and that reflects a changing dynamic.
That is seen most clearly with Ms Hawkins.
The 27 year-old picked up sizeable numbers of votes at Wodonga booths and anecdotal evidence pointed to her having a swathe of support among teenagers and 20-somethings.
While Ms Hawkins benefited from the donkey vote, she also ensured her campaign was well branded with its yellow colours making it recognisable.
Ms Hawkins also spent months building her bid, unlike Ms O’Connor who announced her candidacy just weeks before election day.
This together with the former Indigo Shire mayor’s lack of profile in Wodonga meant Ms O’Connor had two significant hurdles.
Though she was the only candidate to win some of the 31 booths from Mr Tilley, topping the vote count at Beechworth, Stanley and Yackandandah in her home territory.
Labor’s overall primary result fell from 31 per cent in the 2014 poll to 17 per cent on Saturday.
That appears alarming, but in the context of more candidates it was good and reflects the Victoria-wide surge to the Labor Party which ensured its candidate Mark Tait finished ahead of both independents.
In Ovens Valley, which had a bigger margin for its conservative MP, National Tim McCurdy, than Benambra the poll would be a de facto view on his fraud case.
In the end his vote held up, even though Ms Atkins was subjected to needlessly bitter personal attacks.