The former policeman’s primary vote plummeted from 54.6 per cent at the last election in 2014 to 40.2 per cent following 80 per cent of votes being counted from Saturday’s poll. 

Independent Jacqui Hawkins is sitting on 16.7 per cent, while fellow non-aligned contender Jenny O’Connor has netted 12.9 per cent of primary votes.

Labor candidate Mark Tait had 17.6 per cent, with Shooters, Fishers and Farmers hopeful Josh Knight on 8.9 per cent and Greens nominee John Bardsley on 3.44 per cent.

Mr Tilley is not claiming victory, saying he expects the final result to take some time as the Victorian Electoral Commission tallies late votes.

Benambra returning officer Trevor Deacon said absentee and postal votes would be counted this week, but a final preference count would not occur until next week.

Asked about the drop in his vote and whether he expected it, Mr Tilley said he had no expectations of exact numbers.

“If you look at the primaries that have come in from all the booths, there’s still a significant confidence and it probably reflects on the past years that the team (has worked),” he said.

On Sunday, Ms Hawkins was not conceding she had lost.

“Regardless of the final vote count this seat is definitely marginal, but by how much I can’t say,” she said.

MORE VICTORIAN ELECTION COVERAGE:

Ms O’Connor was equally upbeat.

“I think we had a huge impact, it’s clearly a marginal seat now,” she said.

“The rusted-on vote has changed, Jacqui and I between us got a really good vote.”

Mr Tait also shared the view Benambra was now marginal and suggested with a more strategic approach between Labor and the independents “we could have knocked Bill off”.

He wanted the independents to declare their preferences, believing it would have bolstered their chances.

However, Ms Hawkins said: “As soon as you dictate preferences it devalues the impact of being an independent.”

The overall result in Victoria which saw Labor record a thumping win was “absolutely” disappointing for the Liberal Party, Mr Tilley said.

Asked why the Coalition message had failed to succeed across the state, the MP was non-committal.

“At this stage I can’t answer that, because the North East and the Border is a long way, way away (from Melbourne),” Mr Tilley said.

An MP since 2006, Mr Tilley would not say whether this would be his last term if he wins as is likely.

With the Coalition predicted to have just 22 seats in the new parliament, he could become part of the shadow ministry. 

Meanwhile, Ms O’Connor, who stood down as Indigo Shire mayor to contest Benambra for the second time, after having been the Greens candidate in 2010, said her political aspirations were finished beyond local government.

“Truly I’m done, that was an exhausting campaign,” she said.

“I’m still a councillor, I’ve got work to do there.”

Ms Hawkins declined to say if she would commit to another election tilt, however Mr Tait said he was keen to have a further shot for high office.

“It’s opened my eyes and I will stand again,” he said.

Mr Knight, the first Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate to stand in Benambra, is also willing to recontest.

“I’d probably be a bit better organised,” he said, referring to a clumsy start to his campaign when he was left at the prepolling station without any how-to-cards to hand out to voters.

The record early voter turnout resulted in substantial falls in numbers at all Wodonga booths, apart from Victory Lutheran College where they went from 1944 to 1891.

At Birallee they tumbled from 1684 to 899 and 2908 cast their vote at Wodonga Central in 2014 compared to 2011 this time.

Drops also occurred at Beechworth, Corryong, Rutherglen and Tallangatta.

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