The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is warning of reduced water availability with the total amount of water in its dams dropping below 30 per cent for the first time since May, 2016.
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Dartmouth Dam (at 63 per cent capacity) currently holds just over one third of the water held in storage in the entire Basin, with Lake Hume at 22 per cent.
"Across the basin, we have 6932 gigalitres of water in storage right now, which translates to 30 per cent of capacity. This time last year storages were at 52 per cent," MDBA head of river operations Andrew Reynolds said.
"If things stay dry, Victorians with high reliability water shares in the Murray catchment are facing zero allocations at 1 July 2019. We need wet conditions to prevail for entitlement holders to reach full allocations by October," Mr Reynolds said.
"The NSWs outlook also includes indications about the effect on allocations if dry conditions continue. In the Murrumbidgee and Murray, for example, at this stage no commencing general security allocation for 2019-20 is expected.
"Across the Basin we have 6932 gigalitres of water in storage right now, which translates to 30 per cent of capacity. This time last year storages were at 52 per cent.
"While 30 per cent storage is a concern to water managers across the Basin, the southern basin is in better shape than the north. What is widely regarded as the southern drought reserve, Dartmouth Dam currently holds just over one third of the water held in storage in the entire Basin.
"In the northern Basin, the dams are at only 11 per cent capacity, with 569 gigalitres available of a possible 5198 gigalitres.
"We don't know how long the drought will last, and continue to plan for the possibility that storage levels will be a concern into next year."
Mr Reynolds said it was usual for reserves to be drawn down every year at the end of the irrigation season, with the expectation water availability would increase with winter and spring rains.
"In the past year those rains have not eventuated or have been very limited," he said.
"The last time we had similar conditions was in autumn 2016, when Basin-wide storage levels bottomed out at 28 per cent before recovering to 84 per cent six months later following widespread rain in the southern Basin. At the time, however, dam levels in the north remained relatively low and have continued to decline as widespread drought persists.
"With dry conditions expected through autumn, we're anticipating people will carry-over water where they can to shore up their supply into next year, and in the Murray we will continue to notify the state water authorities about the availability of water as they consider their allocation position for next season."