A fear that millions of homes could be plunged into blackout because of an energy failure has reignited the coal vs renewable debate between North East politicians.
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The Australian Energy Market Operator has warned that if repairs on two of Victoria's power plants are not completed by summer, the state may face a supply crisis.
"If both power station outages were extended over the summer, and if no additional supply was secured, involuntary load shedding may be experienced in Victoria during extreme weather events, potentially over multiple events, equivalent to between 260,000 and 1.3 million households being without power for four hours," it stated in its 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities report released this week.
The power plant repairs are scheduled to be completed by December.
But the AEMO report stated there was a 30 per cent likelihood the Loy Yang A unit outage would extend over the summer and a 60 per cent likelihood for the Mortlake unit outage.
The report is aimed at prompting the market to respond to ensure these load-shedding events are avoided.
Benambra MP Bill Tilley said the power supply was under threat because the Victorian government poorly managed the switch to renewable energy.
He said in the event of a blackout, "the greatest fear is obviously for the frail and elderly" because it would most likely occur in extreme heat.
Mr Tilley turned the pressure on Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio.
"The minister appears to be having a blackout of her own when it comes how we got to this point," he said.
"It was this minister's current Labor government that tripled the brown coal royalty and forced the closure of Hazelwood and the 1600 megawatts of power it could produce at the flick of a switch.
"It was her government that had no plan for a smooth transition to renewables or how best to achieve a mix of energy sources."
Back in February, Mars PetCare was forced to temporarily halt production during a period where power prices were set to jump to more than 1000 per cent of the company's usual rate.
Mr Tilley said prices for the March 2020 quarter had already spiked by 50 per cent.
"I'd imagine some of our biggest employers, major power users, would already have been told they will be have to shut down as part of a power shedding plan to limit the impact on homes," he said.
"This is a crisis created by Labor that quite simply could have been averted by having a plan to transition to renewables rather than the minister's death to coal and hang the consequences approach."
Ms D'Ambrosio said took a different view to the blackout warning, saying last summer demonstrated that Victoria's aging coal-fired power stations were shown to be "unreliable, particularly at times of high demand".
"We've been saying this for a long time and that's why we're investing so heavily in renewable energy," she said.
Indi MP Helen Haines denied the switch to renewable energy was happening too quickly, but said the blackout warning showed the need for proper plans.
"We need a plan and we need it federally as well as needing it from a state perspective - and we need to have contingencies in between," she said.
"These are aging power plants and they're privately owned.
"One of the reasons why private businesses are not investing in their power plants is that we're transitioning to a different kind of energy economy and were doing that without a clear energy policy, which means that threats of blackout are a problem in relation to our fundamental, overarching lack of policy."
Without clear federal or state plans for renewable energy, community energy groups like Indigo Power in the North East are taking the initiative for generating and distributing power.
Dr Haines said these groups cannot be the solution individually, but can be part of the plan.
"We do need to plan for worst-case scenarios and certainly from a human health perspective, having community places people can go that are running on an alternative fuel source ... that information needs to be clear and publicly available," she said.
"It's initiatives like Indigo Power and communities having smart meters, generating their own power, that means we can have a demand response.
"It means that some members of the community can cut down their power use during times of potential peak load."
She backed calls for investment in large community batteries for renewable energy, saying it "would be a very sensible way forward".
If a lack of power supply does mean a blackout in Victoria this summer, Dr Haines said there needed to be proper warnings so industries could either wind back or change their time of energy consumption if possible.
Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor has singled out Victoria's ability to cope with the summer peak as a grave concern, accusing the state government of policy failures including encouraging the "premature" shutdown of coal-fired power stations, banning onshore gas projects and moving too quickly towards renewable energy without firming capacity to support it.
In response to the AEMO's report, Mr Taylor said meeting the reliability standard was "no guarantee that the lights won't go out in Victoria this summer".
"In 2018, Victoria barely met the standard and 200,000 customers lost their power," he said.
"When Victorians flick the switch, they need to be confident the lights will turn on - and stay on."
The AEMO report noted efforts are underway to boost supply.
The organisation is working with the Victorian government and industry "to secure the maximum permissible reserves" via its Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader scheme to ensure the state's supply meets reliability standards this summer.