After much-needed rain from February to the end of April at most places in our region, it has been notably drier and colder than normal in the first half of May.
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The area of below normal sea surface temperatures in ocean waters west and south-west of Tasmania has increased in size, and large high-pressure systems centred mainly over New South Wales have contributed to the lack of rainfall.
The City of Melbourne has just had above average rainfall again for the 5th successive month this year.
The last and only other time in the last 165 years was back in 1896.
There is no need to tell you that the winter of 1896 was an exceptionally cold one, like minus 11.4 in Coonabarabran in July 1896.
In 1896, the rainfall in north east Victoria diminished after moderate rain during the second week of June, but heavy rain fell during the third week of September.
Carnarvon on the west coast of Western Australia has had a total of only 3mm since the beginning of last September.
This is the third-driest such period in 138 years of records.
The two drier ones were in 1884 and 1924 - both saw very cold winters in our regions and somewhat dry in July.
From these findings, it does appear that we will receive significant rainfalls in the second week of June and heavier rainfalls during the fourth week of August, and again about mid-September and the first three weeks of October.
After this year, it looks certain that 2021 and 2022 will be also wetter than average in our regions.
From these findings, it does appear that we will receive significant rainfalls in the second week of June and heavier rainfalls during the fourth week of August, and again about mid-September and the first three weeks of October.
