Border charities have called for the federal government to permanently increase welfare payments, claiming the pre-COVID-19 JobSeeker payment 'guaranteed' poverty for recipients.
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Beyond Housing and Foodshare are both anxiously preparing for a 'tidal wave of need' expected to flood emergency support services when Jobseeker returns to normal levels.
The comments come as new postcode data reveals many towns in the North East are among the most severely financially devastated by the COVID-19 places in the country.
The Taylor Fry COVID-19 Financial Impact Index showed vast parts of Wangaratta, Rutherglen, Chiltern and Indigo Valley, Beechworth, Wodonga, Bright and Mount Beauty were in the 10 per cent of postcodes most severely financially affected by coronavirus and lockdown.
The worst hit regions have postcodes of 3657, 3678, 3677, 3733, 3746, 3685, 3687, 3688, 3747, 3691, 3740.
The data showed not all parts of a town were equally affected by the pandemic with some small parts of Myrtleford, Yackandandah, Mt Beauty, Bright and Wangaratta slightly less affected.
Across the Murray, the Albury and Corowa region, with postcodes, 2640, 2646, 2647 and 2643, were in the 50 to 60th decile, meaning COVID-19 hit them harder than 50 per cent of Australians but significantly less financially than their Victorian counterparts.
Parts of the wider Southern Riverina region were among the least affect postcodes in the country.
Emergency relief services like Beyond Housing and Foodshare Albury Wodonga are already dealing with an increased level of demand for their help, but both expect there to be a overwhelming influx of need if JobSeeker returns to pre-COVID levels.
In March, the federal government announced JobSeeker would temporarily be doubled from $550 a fortnight to $1100 until September
Foodshare manager Peter Matthews said drought, bushfires and COVID-19 had compounded financial issues for those in the North East and they were expecting the high level of demand to remain for some time.
"We're experiencing about a 40 per cent increase on the same time as last year, that commenced with the bushfire emergency both in Victoria and NSW," he said.
"We moved from drought to bushfire and almost before the bushfire emergency was finished we were into COVID-19."
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Beyond Housing's Celia Adams said their emergency housing service was helping many people who had never needed to ask for support before.
She said if JobSeeker returns to its previous level it would plunge thousands into poverty.
"We're currently supporting people who through corona and the pandemic have lost jobs and faced unemployment for the first time and who... never imagined themselves homeless or at risk of homeless and needing our support," she said.
"If we returned [JobSeeker] to a critically low income during a recession like the one we're facing while we face high unemployment rates and reduced opportunities to find employment particularly in regional areas... the demand for our services and other charitable services is going to skyrocket."
Mr Matthews said the pre-coronavirus JobSeeker benefit of about $550 a fortnight guaranteed the recipient would live in poverty.
"Doubling it has relieved pressure for so many families and individuals so it demonstrates to us the original allowance guarantees you're living in poverty, you cannot make ends meet on that," he said.
"It's a ridiculously low amount of money.
"If you're living on that allowance and have to pay rent or a mortgage there's no way you'll have enough money for food.
"The core issue for people in poverty who are unemployed is the benefit simply is insufficient to survive on."
Mr Matthews said since the payment doubled the food relief service had seen regular clients able to live and eat without relying on Foodshare.
"When the government increased JobSeeker it meant people that regularly use emergency food relief services were no longer short of funds and were able to shop normally," he said.
Despite this, the service hasn't had any respite, with many people who had never need the service before now desperate for help after finding they're not eligible for JobSeeker or JobKeeper, or while waiting to find out their eligibility.
He said sadly businesses likely won't be reopen to full staffing capacity, leaving many people with no or little work moving forward.
Mr Matthews said if JobSeeker returns to its pre-COVID rate, former regulars will be forced back to being reliant on the service as will a new wave of first-time recipients.
"If the government decides to reduce JobSeeker back to the original level, effectively halving it, it'll cause a huge surge of need for emergency food relief," he said. "We're very nervous, the whole sector is nervous because we don't know the consequences of it occurring until it happens.
"There's going to be a whole new group of people who have never had to approach any organisation for financial support and many of those people don't know what's here."
Mr Matthews said the service was expecting many people's energy bills to be significantly higher this season with most spending a lot more time at home, which would also drive demand for relief.
Ms Adams said if the JobSeeker level returns to the previous rate, people would not be returning to poverty.
"We need to remember that two-thirds of unemployed household are living below that poverty line, that's pre-JobSeeker, pre-JobKeeper - that's not okay," she said.
"There's going to be a crossroads: JobSeeker has been doubled, JobKeeper's been created, there's a moratorium on rental evictions, there's rental relief grants, there's additional funding to move people into safe accommodation... but if you take all those things way there is going to be a tidal wave of homelessness.
"The idea everyone was managing fine before and they've just had their income doubled is wrong, people weren't managing before, people were living below the poverty line.
"They won't be fine when things go back to normal, because they weren't fine before."
Ms Adams said the government needs to consider increasing benefits to unemployed people so people were not living below the poverty line in 2020.
Mr Matthews said drought, bushfires and COVID-19 have compounded financial issues for those in the North East and they were expecting the high level of demand to remain for some time, even if JobSeeker is raised.
"We're experiencing about a 40 per cent increase on the same time as last year, that commenced with the bushfire emergency both in Victoria and NSW," he said.
"We moved from drought to bushfire and almost before the bushfire emergency was finished we were into COVID-19."