China, specifically the trade dispute that has engulfed numerous Australian export products, and how well the COVID-19 vaccine rollout goes were the two main risks to the rosy projections that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg outlined on Thursday.

State border shutdowns will hamper the economic recovery progress made so far, even as they guarantee the health recovery progress. Mr Frydenberg urged premiers to think hard before shutting down interstate movement over new cases that he admits will be seen from time to time.

"It would be premature for any state to act in any way on their borders," Mr Frydenberg told reporters on Thursday. "Because the one week in the last 15 where consumer confidence fell, was when South Australia put their lockdown in place for those few days. That is the one thing that dents confidence, if you have stop-start restrictions, lockdowns and border closures."

A full vaccine rollout by the end of 2021 is baked into the figures from Treasury, but as it notes, it will take some time for activity restrictions to be eased globally. Gradual easing of restrictions will help recovery, but unpredictable setbacks will have the reverse effect.

China is the other big dependency. Trade and Finance Minister Simon Birmingham acknowledged the government has updated its forecasts on agriculture and resources to account for the actions China has taken, such as applying duties to Australian barley, wine and seafood. He acknowledged the impact of those decisions on businesses.

"The main support for Australian businesses facing disruption in their trade and export relationship caused by China's decisions is to help them drive into other markets," Senator Birmingham said.

Treasury predicts Australian regional exports will grow by about 2.5 per cent, even with current decisions out of China. The only way to ensure that growth continues however is by continuing to push exporters to take advantage of deals Australia has negotiated in North America, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.