TEMPERATURES were well above average across the Border region in spring, with more extreme heat likely in the summer months.
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Rainfall for the past three months though was only slightly below average.
“Daytime temperatures on the Border have been around two degrees above average for the period,” Bureau of Meterology forecaster Dean Stewart said.
Mr Stewart said that was quite a significant rise.
Rainfall totals ranged across the area — Wangaratta had about 62 per cent of its normal spring rainfall, while Rutherglen’s was closer to 90 per cent.
“There’s obviously a bit of variation through the region,” he said.
“It looks like there has been generally below average rainfall.”
Mr Stewart said overnight temperatures were the only constant, these largely being right on average.
“Wangaratta and Strathbogie were both a touch below average, while Rutherglen was about a degree below.”
The highest temperature last month in Albury-Wodonga was the 37.9 degrees recorded on November 14, while the coolest was on the second when the mercury reached just 19.1 degrees.
Most of the month was dry, the exceptions being a 27-millimetre fall on the 25th, 24.4 millimetres on the 16th and five millimetres on the second.
Mr Stewart said showers around the Border region yesterday were not included in the spring rainfall total.
“The cut-off was this morning,” he said.
Another 56 millimetresof rain fell in September, while October was the driest month with 19.6 millimetres.
Drier times though lie ahead to go with the hotter weather.
Mr Stewart said the chance of getting above average rainfall on the Border this summer was low.
“For Albury there’s a 30 to 35 per cent chance of that, which in other words means there’s more likely to be below average rainfall for the next three months,” he said.
The bureau’s latest outlook predicts a 70 to 75 per cent likelihood of above average maximum temperatures for the Albury-Wodonga region.
That drops to between 65 to 70 per cent for Wangaratta and Benalla.
It further falls to about 50 per cent for Albury-Wodonga this month.
“Even though we haven’t yet gone into an El Nino pattern, there has been some signs,” Mr Stewart said.
“To get officially to El Nino it’s got to pass certain thresholds.
“In some ways it’s been leaning that way without doing so, though the Southern Oscillation Index has been largely negative. And in that scenario we’ve had slightly below average rainfall.”
A negative value for the index usually means there has been sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, plus a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia.
