Speaking on the ABC's  Four Corners program, Ms Vanstone said it would be a simple mathematical calculation in the end that would determine Mr Abbott's grip on his job.

"Understand this, as you get closer, every marginal seat member is thinking 'I could lose my seat', every safe seat member is thinking 'we could lose government and I won't have a chance of being a minister and I might be too old next time', so they're gonna be looking at what the polling says and whether they can win and they will stick with a prime minister who can win and they'll cut one off who can't," she said.

The Vanstone comments were among several confronting observations by Liberals contained in the 45-minute documentary entitled "House of Cards", which sought to chronicle the government's horror start to 2015 in which Mr Abbott's leadership has faced a series of tests.

The program claimed Mr Abbott was aided at the time of the failed spill motion by a secretive campaign orchestrated from outside the party by the ultra-conservative National Civic Council. According to one source, Sydney barrister, Robert Colquhoun, the NCC "inadvertently sent the instruction email from a senior NCC figure who organised the campaign to influence the internal Liberal Party vote".

He said he was "astounded" to learn that by ticking a box he could send a message to all Liberal MPs warning them not to dump Mr Abbott or the party would lose his vote.

The program detailed the unseemly row simmering inside the Liberal Party over the influence of the Prime Minister's chief of staff, Peta Credlin, whom many blame for the government's poor internal relations, as well as its unpopular policy manouevres, and her husband, Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane.

Another former minister and sitting Queensland senator Ian Macdonald offered both explicit and implicit criticism of the government leadership with the Coalition trailing Labor by up to 10 points according to the most recent major opinion polls.

"I think they [the government] set out to do the right thing by the country and by the economy but without giving any thought about how this would impact on individuals, particularly on the less fortunate in society and also I'm quite sure they gave no consideration to how this would play out politically because it doesn't matter, you can be the best government in the world but if you're not there, if you're not in government to do the right thing, it's all to no avail," he said.

The irascible senator went on to slam the GP co-payment plan, which was dropped recently, as "an additional tax on doctors" which was also seen to be unfair on the poor.

"I was opposed to it from day one, but principally because it had never been discussed in the party room," he said.

"There had been no indication of it. The opinion of backbenchers who are in tune with their electorates had not been sought and, quite frankly, it was just stupid policy and I said it at the time and I'm a bit gratified that now, some nine months later, that's been accepted."

Also quoted was one of Mr Abbott's more trenchant critics from the far west, Dennis Jensen, who said decisions made to back several policies and the subsequent retreat from them, had rocked the party's confidence and raised questions over the Prime Minister's political judgment.

"In my view he was still too focussed on attacking the Labor Party and not enough focussed on coherent and consistent policy and strategic direction for the nation and certainly articulating that strategic direction for the nation," Dr Jensen said.

Senator Macdonald said the LNP's disastrous Queensland election result was affected by the decision just days earlier to award a knighthood to Prince Philip. "The Queensland election was very, very toxic on polling day, something I've never experienced before," he said.

The program also reported on Monday night that the national security committee of cabinet supported having most of the construction work on Australia's new fleet of submarines done overseas. No final decision in favour of Japan was taken, however.

It is widely believed that Prime Minister Tony Abbott strongly supported buying submarines from Japan, but the political fallout in South Australia – home of the Australian shipbuilder ASC – forced a rethink.

With David Wroe

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