Nine out of 10 suburbs worst affected by the combined impact of the Abbott government's two budgets are in Labor-held seats.
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New analysis has for the first time shown the impact of Treasurer Joe Hockey's fiscal policies in every suburb of Australia, revealing a compelling story of winners and losers based on geography and political leanings.
The country's worst-affected suburb is western Sydney's Mount Druitt, which recently shot to national attention after it became the focus of a controversial SBS documentary about the effects of entrenched poverty.
Households in Mount Druitt will lose an average $1066.10 in the 2018-19 financial year, according to the analysis.
But residents in the least-affected suburb, Darlinghurst in Malcolm Turnbull's inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth, will gain $177.90 that year.
Other least-affected suburbs include seats held by Liberal MPs including Treasurer Joe Hockey, Victorian rising star Kelly O'Dwyer, and Western Australia's Melissa Price.
The new modelling was run by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling one of Australia's most respected economic modellers.
It was not commissioned by Labor or any other political party.
The results are built on the modelling NATSEM completed for Labor immediately after the government's second budget, but it matches those findings with 2011 census data to see how the typical household in every Australian suburb will be affected.
NATSEM says the benefit of modelling the cumulative impact of both budgets is that it shows the financial impact of every policy change from the last two years, including the carbon tax removal, the petrol excise increase, the government's new childcare package, and aged pension changes.
It has shown the average annual dollar impact on the typical household in the 2018-19 financial year because that is when most policies will have kicked in.
The modelling shows Labor-held seats will cop the brunt of financial losses.
Labor Leader Bill Shorten slammed the findings as "definitive proof of how unfair Tony Abbott's government actually is".
"Why should a family in Mount Druitt suffer these sorts of cuts while those in Point Piper are better off?" Mr Shorten said. "What planet are Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey living on if they think that's fair?"
A spokesman for Mr Hockey said the modelling failed to show the economic benefits of helping Australians move back into work.
Ben Phillips, principal research fellow at NATSEM, delivered the results of his modelling at a conference in Canberra this week in front of Treasury officials, academics and representatives from the Department of Social Services.
Mr Phillips told the audience the regional impact of both budgets was "largely concentrated on western Sydney".
"The western suburbs, and south-western suburbs, is where the main impact will be felt, reflecting a higher loss of around $1000 a year," he said.
Mr Hockey's office criticised the findings and said they appeared to fail to take into account some of the government's key social security spending.
"Our budget gives families more choice, more flexibility and more incentive to 'have a go'," a spokesman said.
"Like the old NATSEM Labor modelling, the modelling appears to fail to take into account the workforce participation benefits of moving from welfare into work."
Mount Druitt is represented by Labor MP Ed Husic.
Its unemployment rate is double the national average, and of its residents who are in the labour force 57 per cent are considered unskilled (compared with the national average of 39 per cent).
The least-affected suburbs in the country will gain money from the two budgets: Darlinghurst (Lib) households will receive $177.90 on average in 2018-19; Nhulunbuy (Labor) will get $176, followed by Paddington in Sydney, Potts Point, East Melbourne, Kingston in Canberra and the town of Newman in Western Australia.
The 2015-16 budget papers show a single parent with one child aged under six and $60,000 of private income will receive $20,179 in government assistance in 2015-16.
WORST AFFECTED
Mount Druitt, Sydney (Labor: -$1066.10)
Mount Lewis, Sydney (Labor: -$1012.30)
South Granville, Sydney (Labor: -$952.80)
Bankstown, Sydney (Liberal/Labor: -$926.50)
Birrong, Sydney (Labor: -$884.40)
Sefton, Sydney (Labor: -$866.90)
Clyde, Sydney (Labor: -$831.30)
Warwick Farm, Sydney (Labor: -$831.10)
Georges Hall, Sydney (Labor: -$810.90)
Meadow Heights, Melbourne (Labor: -$801.10)
LEAST AFFECTED
Darlinghurst, Sydney (Liberal: +$177.90)
Nhulunbuy, Northern Territory (Labor: +$176)
Paddington, Sydney (Liberal: +$172.20)
Potts Point, Sydney (Liberal: +$168.40)
East Melbourne, Melbourne (Greens: +$149.20)
Kingston, Canberra (Labor: +$133.30)
Newman, Western Australia (Liberal: +$104.80)
St Leonards, Sydney (Liberal: +$99.60)
Homebush Bay, Sydney (Labor: +$98.20)
South Yarra, Melbourne (Liberal: +$97.10)
* Source: NATSEM
