Predictions despite the election fatigue

But I might as well join the throng of commentators and make a few predictions of my own.

The Coalition will win comfortably but with a significant reduction in its majority. This will be largely due to the pro-Tony Abbot forces within it rather than the efforts of the Labor Party. Which I see as really strange, as anybody who has read Andrew P Street’s book The Short and Excruciatingly Embarrassing Reign of Captain Abbott will attest to.

Abbott and his radical far right henchmen were on course to take the government to an embarrassing election loss.

I’m no great fan of Malcolm Turnbull either – especially given his lack of zing in the run-up to the election. But he seems to be marking time, waiting for an election win before he returns to progressive policies.

However, he might not have the chance.  I just can’t help thinking we might be heading towards a Rudd-Gillard-Rudd scenario. Especially as so many of the Liberal supporters and the right wing commentators have been vociferous in their criticism of Turnbull.

The seat of Farrer is a foregone conclusion with sitting member Sussan Ley a shoe-in, although she might have a slightly reduced majority.

So far as Indi goes I reckon former member Sophie Mirabella is set to return to the House of Representatives and my money is on her. As long as she does not stuff it up by making any more Bjelke-Petersen-like statements such as claiming money wasn’t coming into the electorate because she wasn’t elected last time.

And we don’t see a line-up of bully boy ministers touring the electorate.

Which is why it was smart to have the much-respected deputy leader of the Liberals, Julie Bishop, make a low-key visit.

The sleeping giant could be the Nationals’ candidate Marty Corboy, who is well-respected within the community and his party will be going hard to win the seat.

Independent Cathy McGowan deserves to be returned, but the numbers and the amount of dishonesty that has been spread about her would seem to make her task almost insurmountable.

She is off the land, approachable and her family has been major contributors to the electorate over many years. Anybody who has watched, on television, question time in the House of Representatives will know she has frequently been on her feet, mentioning the seat of Indi and the issues it faces. And if she is such a Greens/Labor supporter why did she vote against the Opposition’s move to bring about a vote of no confidence against Bronwyn Bishop?

But there is one prediction I am certain of.

And that is this will be the last time federal politicians do not face the wrath of a well-organised “grey army”, which will be the standard bearer of the Baby Boomers. Frankly, we have had a gutful of being ignored by the major parties. Turnbull wants us to be more innovative, but seems to believe it is only the youngsters of the nation who are capable of delivering it, while leaving those with a wealth of lifetime experience on the sidelines.

It doesn’t affect met too much because I have been a white collar worker all my life, but what about the tradies who are becoming too old, if they are already not, to continue to do manual labour?

So much for the problem of an ageing population. You have been warned and politicians who ignore that threat will do so at their own peril.