It will continue very dry in North East Victoria for the fifth successive week with mild to warm sunny days to 24 degrees after morning frosts and some fogs.
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Wangaratta has had 11 days of frosts, Rutherglen 13 days of frosts and Benalla only two days of frosts since April 20. Looking further ahead, a significant rain event is likely about May 26.
Adelaide has completed its driest February to April period since 1923 and the fourth driest such period in records going right back to 1839.
The total rainfall for February to April this year was just 15 millimetres, the driest since 3.1 in 1923 and the fourth driest behind 13 millimetres in 1870 and 9.7 millimetres in 1888. The event of 1870 followed a wet January in our regions and then a notably hotter and drier February to March period before significant rainfall during April in 1870. This is precisely what has happened this year to date and as the rest of 1870 was notably wetter than average from Tasmania to well into Queensland, it does look certain that 2024 will follow suit.
Temperatures colder than usual up north
April was notably colder than usual over most of the Northern Territory. At Daly Waters, Tennant Creek and Alice Springs, temperatures were well down on the April normal. The past records at these three towns show there were notably cold Aprils in 1892, 1911, 1924, 1949, 1971, 1983 and 2011. All these episodes set up a wetter than average period for the second half of the year in our regions.
During the last few days a very strong high band of central pressure 1042 millibars moved over Tasmania while a low pressure trough deepened over central NSW brought variable rainfalls. The heaviest rainfalls to Saturday morning, May 4, were 66 millimetres at Hillston and 51 at Cobar. The downpour at Hillston was the town's wettest ever May day in 143 years of records; the previous wettest May day was 64 millimetres on May 4, 2000. Cobar's 51 millimetres created the wettest May day there since 59.4 on May 3, 2000.
The deepening low pressure trough brought heavy to flood rainfalls along part of the NSW coast south from near Sydney to Nowra. The heaviest rainfall to Sunday morning, May 5, was 154.8 millimetres at Jervis Bay. This was the wettest May day in 125 years of records at Jervis Bay; the previous wettest May days were 146.8 millimetres in 1913 and 134.4 millimetres in 2003.
The very strong high pressure system is currently just east of Tasmania and another strong high pressure west of Tasmania is amalgamating with this system, bringing mainly easterly winds to our regions. A new inland trough looks like forming towards the next weekend but rainfall is rather patchy. Heavier rains are likely again near Sydney.
Hillston's 66 millimetres was very isolated; the town is located in the northern part of the Riverina. Nearly all of the Riverina has been very dry, with no significant rainfall since the second week of April and none likely before the fourth week of May.
