On Friday, Malcolm Turnbull will visit Berlin. According to the press releases issued by Turnbull's and Angela Merkel's offices, they will talk about the bilateral relationship, and discuss global issues. They might also compare notes on their politics, which are close. Both are socially progressive, pro-market and pro-environment liberals.
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They could even talk about leadership. Here, their styles couldn't be more different. Merkel has been reluctant to lead from the front; instead, she is usually waiting for a consensus to emerge, before embracing and advocating a position. In German, there is now a word to describe this propensity to dither: merkeln. Turnbull, on the other hand, is more likely to convince others to follow him on a route he has charted.
Between the end of August and late October, Merkel acted out of character when she advocated a position without waiting for the majority of her party, of her coalition government and of Germans to make up their minds. She repeatedly said Germany ought to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of refugees who were trying to seek its protection, that the German constitution did not provide for an upper limit on the number of people who could be granted asylum, and that no tolerance should be shown towards those who violated the dignity of refugees.
"Wir schaffen das" ("We are able to do this"), Merkel kept telling Germans who were sceptical about the country's ability to accommodate one million refugees this year alone. Her "Wir schaffen das" was also directed at the many Germans who were donating their time to welcome refugees, teach them German, and invite them home. It was a defiant "Wir schaffen das" towards xenophobes and Islamophobes.
Refugee issues will inevitably feature in the Merkel and Turnbull meeting. Turnbull is unlikely to do what Tony Abbott would have done, and advocate the Australian policy of stopping the boats as a model to be emulated by the Europeans in the Mediterranean. Turnbull might point out Australia has agreed to resettle an extra 12,000 Syrians and Iraqis. Merkel has been looking towards her European partners when demanding that the burden posed by refugee arrivals be shared equitably, and may well think 12,000 is a pathetically small number. But she could ask for Australian advice on how Germany ought to go about successfully resettling refugees.
Merkel, who believes in the merits of global approaches to forced migration and in burden sharing, might suggest to Turnbull that Australia may want to triple or quadruple the number of humanitarian entrants per year – not necessarily by taking more Syrians, but by resettling refugees from countries such as Myanmar.
While Turnbull may not be as familiar as the German chancellor with Europe's refugee crisis, he knows a lot about leadership. He could tell Merkel it would be in her own best interests not to be associated with backflipping, and instead to stick it out: reign in the rebels in her own party, convince Germans that her "Wir schaffen das" was genuine and that she has a plan how Germans would be able to do this, and keep ostracising the populist far right.
Of course such advice would be far more convincing if the Australian prime minister were able to tell Merkel that he will soon demonstrate leadership and end the incarceration of men, women and children, who have committed no crime other than to seek Australia's protection.
