A looming heatwave in early 2018 is unlikely to augur an exceptionally hot year for Australia as a weak La Nina in the Pacific will start to tilt the odds to relatively cool and wet conditions for much of the nation, forecasters say.
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By the first weekend, many populated regions will have copped temperatures close to or above 40 degrees as a pulse of heat sweeps across southern Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted highs of 30 to 33 degrees throughout Albury and Wodonga through the early part of this week, before the mercury soars to 27 on Friday, reaching 40 degrees on Saturday and 37 on Sunday.
Similar temperatures are predicted for Wangaratta, which will see a peak of 41 on Saturday, as will Benalla.
The longer-term forecast, though, is for a relatively damp start to the year. The latest Bureau of Meteorology climate outlook for the first three months of 2018 show the odds favour more rain than usual for almost all of the country.
"The cloud and the rain reduces the chance of getting searing heat," Brett Dutschke, a senior meteorologist with Weatherzone, said.
Mr Dutschke said sea-surface temperatures were "still fairly high" – particularly off south-eastern Australia – creating conditions for above-average rain.
Still, the warm end to 2017 – likely to be among Australia's five warmest years in records that go back to 1910 – means any relative easing in temperatures may barely be noticeable for many regions.
La Nina events typically mean eastern Australia turns wetter and cooler than usual, as a strengthening of easterly winds along the equatorial Pacific drags more rain westwards.
The La Nina, though, is expected to be weak and end by autumn, the bureau predicts.
The south-eastern corner of the nation, though, can get hotter than usual weather during La Ninas, and the next few months look like following that pattern.
A region spanning west of Adelaide and taking in eastern Victoria and Tasmania can expect above-average daytime temperatures over the January-March period, particularly during January, the bureau said.
While heavy rains drenched eastern Victoria in early December, areas to the west of a line roughly running from Melbourne north to Echuca on the Murray mostly missed out, said Craig Lapsley, Victoria's emergency management commissioner.
"We move back into really hot weather again" in the first week of January, he said.
Places of most concern for fire authorities in Victoria include Warburton, Healesville and the Otways. These areas near Melbourne swell with holiday visitors.