As counting continued on Thursday, Mr Tilley’s primary vote fell below 40 per cent for the first time since Saturday night.

Two-candidate preferred, the ABC estimates Mr Tilley has a 226-vote margin over independent candidate Jacqui Hawkins.

The Victorian Electoral Commission, the official counting body, has opted not to assess the two-candidate vote in that fashion, instead weighing Mr Tilley’s vote against Labor candidate Mark Tait, which gives the incumbent a big lead.

A result could come on Monday when the VEC is scheduled to undertake a count which will see preferences of the six candidates distributed. 

Meanwhile, Benalla-born Jaclyn Symes will be Victoria’s Agriculture Minister, if she wins back her seat in parliament.

The Upper House MP, who is striving to return to the Legislative Council, was on Thursday promoted to head the agricultural, resources and regional development ministries.

While Cabinet colleagues were sworn in to their roles at Government House on Thursday, Ms Symes watched on as her place in parliament remains in doubt.

The ABC predicts she will be the last of the five to be elected to Northern Victoria.

On Thursday Wangaratta’s Derryn Hinch Justice Party nominee Tania Maxwell returned to the quintet after dropping out on Wednesday.

Her inclusion was at the expense of National Party incumbent Luke O’Sullivan.

Ms Symes said because she faced a similar scramble to secure last place in the 2014 election “I’m reasonably calm about it”.

The region may not be decided until December 11, but Ms Symes expects to be sworn in as a minister within hours if she’s re-elected.

She nominated drought as a key priority in the agricultural sector.

Regional colleague Jacinta Allan will be Transport Infrastructure Minister with newly elected MP Melissa Horne the Public Transport Minister.

The move means Ms Allan is still responsible for delivering new trains to the North East.