The loser of Saturday's Yarrawonga-Wangaratta Rovers clash will be odds-on of reaching the halfway mark of the season with only three wins.
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The pair head into the round seven clash with a two-four win-loss record and will start a clear favourite in only one other game prior to the end of round nine.
Yarrawonga faces North Albury (ninth) and Albury (fourth), while the Hawks meet Wangaratta (third) and Wodonga (last).
Historically over the past 20 years, turning three and six doesn't necessarily spell the end of a club's finals hopes.
North Albury was one-six in 2000 and made the grand final, albeit in a record loss to Corowa-Rutherglen.
The Roos themselves went a step better in 2003, claiming the flag after falling to two-five.
Wodonga (two-five) in 2005 and Rovers (nought-six) in 2007 both played finals after slow starts.
The average finals cutoff for the past decade is just over nine wins, so the loser of the game at Yarrawonga's JC Lowe Oval would need a favourable run home to snatch fifth spot, which is probably the only one available given the form of Myrtleford, Lavington, Albury and Wangaratta.
"100 per cent and Rovers will be thinking the same," Pigeons' coach Damian Sexton said.
"The pressure is right on, but we're coming off a really good performance at 'Lavi'.
"'Symesy' (Brandon Symes) is back on the training track now after his (farming) work commitments so we're giving ourselves every chance."
The Pigeons fell by only nine points to the-then competition leaders in their best performance of the season.
Rovers have been one of the big improvers after snaring a winless wooden spoon last year.
The club has named Tom McCaffrey for just his second game, although he's also been named for Casey Demons in the VFL.
If McCaffrey plays, the Hawks will have a trio of dangerous small to medium-sized forwards, joining Dylan Stone and Stuart Booth.
The latter pair kicked four and three goals respectively in the Hawks' drought-breaking win over Corowa-Rutherglen in round two.
Despite their resurgence, Rovers have still been the heartache story of the first six rounds, falling to Myrtleford with 39 seconds left and Wodonga Raiders by nine points after taking the momentum into the final quarter.
Coach Daryn Cresswell said after the game his players just don't know how to win games.
If they harbour plans of finals, they might need to learn quickly against the Pigeons.
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