Predicting how an AFL ladder is going to look six months from the start of a new season isn't easy. Indeed, so small is the gap between most teams these days that the task has never been more difficult.
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If you doubt that, pretend for a moment your life depends upon correctly naming a team other than Gold Coast which definitely won't play finals in 2020. Get it wrong and it's all over.
Feel confident? I wouldn't. Not when you consider last year's 17 th-placed team, Melbourne, had just 12 months earlier played in a preliminary final. Or that Brisbane, which finished last season's home and away rounds in second spot on the ladder, had in 2018 finished 15th .
It's hideously tough. So I make no apologies for, overall, a conservative approach. I think while there's a large group of teams in the middle who could potentially make a surge, they'll nonetheless have their work cut out displacing those above them, most of whom are stable, and arguably still with their best ahead.
Premiers? How can you go past Richmond? Sure, winning back-to-back flags is difficult. But the Tigers have been the best team of the last three years, and but for an untimely stumble in one preliminary final, could right now boast a premiership hat-trick.
Last year's triumph came despite a potentially fatal run of injuries to key players early in the piece, during which they still not only held their ground, but turned up a number of very promising replacements, most notably young Sydney Stack and, incredibly, on grand final day, Marlion Pickett.
Richmond's catalogue of class, even after the retirement of Alex Rance, is long. The Tigers' game plan is proven, disciplined and ruthlessly efficient. They're a massive chance to make it three flags from four starts.
West Coast never really seemed to get going last year in its premiership defence, yet still held a top four spot until a shock final-round defeat at home. I'm taking that as a good sign.
While there's a large group of teams in the middle who could potentially make a surge, they'll nonetheless have their work cut out displacing those above them, most of whom are stable, and arguably still with their best ahead.
The plusses for the Eagles are significant, a massive recruiting coup in former Geelong star Tim Kelly, and for the first time in several years a fully-fit and fired-up Nic Naitanui. Add that to some serious goalkicking power, a superb defence, and a big home state advantage, and you have ingredients for another serious crack at a flag.
There is one team, though, about which I am prepared to go out on something of a limb. And it's the Western Bulldogs, who I think they might be good enough to give this season's flag a serious shake.
The team which turned its season around last year with eight wins from its last 11 games has rediscovered the hunger which drove its 2016 triumph. And in terms of personnel, this might well be man-for-man a superior version.
The midfield unit, led by new skipper Marcus Bontempelli, is imposing. There's a heap of improving youngsters. There's tremendous flexibility, with a huge core of close to 20 midfielders come forwards or backs. And the Dogs are far more potent in attack these days, too, and now have added former Saint Josh Bruce to the mix.
The team which turned its season around last year with eight wins from its last 11 games has rediscovered the hunger which drove its 2016 triumph. And in terms of personnel, this might well be man-for-man a superior version.
Collingwood should be thereabouts again. The Magpies under coach Nathan Buckley have a very solid method, winning more of the ball than any rival thanks to Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and co.
They're also effective at maintaining possession and playing the game on their terms. And surely the Pies are due a change of luck on the injury front sooner than later.
And what of last year's runner-up? Greater Western Sydney came with a rush last September after having finished only sixth in the home and away season, a notably harder and tougher unit in the finals (at least until grand final day) than it had been.
Will it be that version of the Giants we now see on a week-to-week basis? The arrival of former Crow ruckman Sam Jacobs helps, and you do suspect that after a grand final and two preliminary finals over four seasons, this is the year GWS makes its most serious tilt yet.
Geelong couldn't have done a lot more right during the regular season in 2019, topping the ladder for 21 of 23 rounds. Once again, though, the Cats were just short of the mark come the pointy end of the season. That left their finals record since their last premiership in 2011 a miserable 4-11. There's also been a considerable loss in the off-season, that of Kelly.
That said, there's some handy pick-ups, too, in former St Kilda star Jack Steven, Kelly's obvious replacement, and former Crow Josh Jenkins, who can help give Tom Hawkins a well-deserved chop-out near goal.
One team that will be watched very closely in 2020 is last year's bolter, Brisbane. The Lions were magnificent in rising from 15 th to second, and perhaps a little stiff come finals to run into a red-hot Richmond, then lose to GWS by just three points.
The Lions, however, will be paid a lot more opposition attention this season, and coach Chris Fagan will be working overtime to make sure his side avoids the sort of complacency that beset Melbourne last year after its 2018 gains.
But changes to the composition of the eight? I toyed with just one, and in the end, decided against it.
That last spot I see as a contest between Essendon and Hawthorn. And as problematic as was the Bombers' run with injuries over summer, their pre-season form, with a new-look, very Richmond-like game style, could just deliver some decent results.
With Joe Daniher out maybe until mid-season, and senior men like Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley without much track time, it's been a far from ideal preparation for the six months ahead.
But the arrival of new assistant coach Blake Caracella from Richmond might yet prove a coup. Certainly the Bombers looked a team far more intent on applying pressure and moving the ball quickly by hand in their Marsh Series wins over West Coast and Geelong.
Hawthorn hasn't been as impressive in March. The Hawks did, though, win six of their last eight games last season to only
narrowly miss out on finals. And in 2020, there will be some big names added to the mix.
Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell is finally back after a badly broken leg. And former Giant Jonathon Patton suits up in brown and gold. His presence should help the Hawks muster plenty more goals, lack of decent forward firepower their biggest weakness in 2019.
Who has the potential to make a huge jump up the ladder in 2020? Several teams, but among them, I like the chances of St Kilda doing so best.
It's easy to get overly-excited about a side which loads up on senior talent, but even in two pre-season games, you could sense Brad Hill's pace and skill is going to be a huge plus.
Paddy Ryder will provide important ruck and key position support for Rowan Marshall, Dougal Howard is a steady presence down back, Zak Jones adds more run and premiership small forward Dan Butler offers St Kilda genuine ground-level forward pressure.
Then there's the exciting prospect of young key forward Max King's progress at senior level. I won't be surprised at all if we see St Kilda in September for the first time in nearly a decade.
Melbourne is a big wildcard, too. Was the Demons' 2018 preliminary final appearance or last year's disastrous season the norm? No doubt, there's motivation to spare. And the Dees have addressed their issues with leg speed in the recruitment of Ed Langdon from Fremantle and Adam Tomlinson from GWS.
They've certainly looked a better outfit in pre-season wins over Adelaide and Hawthorn.
Whether Sam Weideman can step up and be the key forward presence the Demons also badly need might well be the difference between a return to the eight or not.
Fremantle will also be an interesting case in 2020, with a new coach in Justin Longmuir and the promise of a more enterprising brand of football.
Brad Hill and Ed Langdon are considerable losses, though. And the question marks over Jesse Hogan's capacity to even return, let alone contribute badly-needed goals, are genuine.
Matt Taberner shapes as a key to Freo finally being able to generate enough scoreboard pressure.
How far can the two South Australian teams go this season? I think the outlook for both needs to be measured.
Adelaide, which also has a new coach in Matthew Nicks, has lost a truckload of experience, the departures or retirements of Eddie Betts, Richard Douglas, Josh Jenkins, Alex Keath, Hugh Greenwood, Cam Ellis-Yolmen and Andy Otten costing the Crows more than 1100 games experience.
There's promising talent coming through in the shape of Darcy Fogarty, Chayce Jones, and Jordan Gallucci, among others, but Adelaide is beginning to look thin in midfield, where Rory Sloane and the Crouch brothers Brad and Matt will be carrying a sizeable load.
Port Adelaide, meanwhile, has some real long-term talent pushing through in youngsters Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters, all of whom made an impact in their debut seasons, while a recent draftee, Mitch Georgiades, has looked very promising pre-season.
But the Power have been at times dysfunctional up forward. Needless to say, Charlie Dixon's ability to stay fit and firing will be critical to Port's fortunes.
One side not generating much excitement among pundits this season appears to be North Melbourne. It wouldn't be the first time the Roos' capacities had been undervalued, either.
The Roos under Rhyce Shaw have uncovering a couple of good talents in Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar, while the exciting Tarryn Thomas could be anything. Is it still the senior men basically leading the way, though? One stat which might concern North is that last season
Trent Dumont was the only player younger than 26 to finish top 10 in the best and fairest.
Carlton will be desperate for continued improvement under David Teague after having won six of 11 games in the run home last season and losing a couple more by under a kick.
Prodigal son Eddie Betts returns, that alone the source of much of the buzz around Ikon Park.
Will that be enough? Certainly, the Blues will be anxious indeed about the health of key forward Charlie Curnow, potentially an absentee from the first half of the season after patella issues. Harry McKay, too, has had an interrupted pre-season.
There won't be a lot of supporters for the prospect of Sydney making a return to the big time after its 15 th place finish in 2019, particularly not after the retirements of several great leaders.
Then again, for a side which lost 14 games last year, the Swans remained pretty respectable with an average losing margin of under 20 points.
Aside from the obvious candidates like Lance Franklin, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker,
Sydney's fortunes may well be determined by the amount of progress the promising Jordan
Dawson, Nick Blakey and Tom McCartin can continue to make.
Finally, while it's been a shocking few years for Gold Coast, the Suns have at least now have arrested the continual exodus of senior players and managed to re-sign some likely foundations of their long-term future.
For two years now, the Suns have started well then fallen in a complete heap. More consistent competitiveness might be enough of a goal in itself for the club as it effectively goes about starting from scratch.
Not unlike 17 other clubs, to an extent. Right now, at least until the first bounce of the ball on Thursday week, anyway, they're all equal. But it won't stay that way for long.
