MITCH BEER has put the Albury Gold Cup runners under the microscope and provided an insight into who he thinks might win the $200,000 feature.
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IT'S Albury Gold Cup day and for the second year in-a-row the meeting is marred with controversy.
What would've the odds been at this time last year that another carnival would be affected by something out of the club's control... at least a million-to-one.
I suppose the positive this year is at least we still get to race.
Full credit to the Albury Racing Club and their hard-working committee on their work behind the scenes so that the carnival could still go ahead minus the crowd.
I live in close proximity to the course and have seen first-hand how many hours the committee has put in and how often over the past fortnight they are not leaving the course until late at night.
The club has attracted another strong field for its feature event and let's have a crack at trying to find the winner.
Early markets have Fun Fact as a dominant favourite ahead of Maid Of Ore and Attorney.
When the final cup field was first released I thought the Peter Snowden-trained Mount Tabora was the horse to beat.
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But you can't win an Albury Gold Cup sitting in you box with Mount Tabora an early scratching.
So the best form pointer in regards to honing in on the winner appears to be the Canberra Cup form.
The market represents that with Canberra Cup runner-up Fun Fact favourite at $3 and third placegetter Maid Of Ore next best at $5.50.
There is little doubt Fun Fact is a deserved favourite.
The Bjorn Baker-trained stayer finished second behind Mugatoo in the Canberra feature
Mugatoo is $2.10 to win the Manion Cup at Rosehill tomorrow and favourite for the Sydney Cup.
If Mugatoo was racing at Albury today he would be a $1.50-pop and looks destined to win a major race over the Sydney Autumn carnival.
Fun Fact ticks a lot of boxes.
He is in terrific form, proven at 2000m and is drawn to shoot for an all-the-way victory.
If there is a query surrounding Fun Fact's credentials it is that he has been in work since early November.
Have they gone to the well once too often?
Fun Fact raced over the Gold Coast carnival in January, come back to Sydney and won and then went to Canberra.
Horses don't collect frequent flyer points and he has certainly clocked up some kilometres this preparation.
But in saying that a high-profile stable like Baker's wouldn't be making the trek to Albury if the horse wasn't pleasing him in trackwork.
It's a hit and run mission with only one goal in mind - to return home with the Albury Gold Cup.
On paper there doesn't look to be too much pressure for the lead and Fun Fact maps to get to the front and shoot for an all-the-way win.
But at past Albury Cups have proven you have to expect the unexpected and don't be surprised if the pace is on early and the field strings out as jockeys jostle for a position early.
That's why only genuine 2000m horses that are rock-hard fit win Albury Cups - it's never a walk up front and sprint the final two furlongs.
It's usually a pressure cooker and if you can't stand the heat, you soon get found out when the sprint goes on.
If you rate the Canberra Cup form like me then Nick Olive's horse Maid Of Ore is the biggest threat after running third in the Canberra feature.
Yes, she has drawn a horror gate in 16 but if jockey Shaun Guymer can plot an economical trip, I expect her to be right in the finish.
The swing in the weights from the Canberra Cup can't be underestimated.
Fun Fact goes from 54kg to 58kg while Maid Of Ore only goes up 1kg to 55kg.
So what that tells me is Fun Fact is going to have to produce a performance at least the equal to his Canberra run or Maid Of Ore can turn the tables.
The most progressive horse in the race by a mile is Attorney.
A quick glance at his form where he has run sixth and eighth at Randwick since resuming and you could be forgiven for dismissing him as a winning hope.
But if you look closer Attorney hasn't been beaten by big margins and gets in on the minimum weight.
To say he is lightly raced is a massive understatement - you rarely see a horse competing in an Albury Cup who has only had eight starts.
That tells me he is talented, on the upward spiral and has to be respected.
The present quote of $5 is certainly short enough but I concede Attorney is a winning hope.
It's good to see so many Border trainers have runners in the cup.
Ron Stubbs is as an astute a trainer there is on the Border and has set Spunlago for this race - that's good enough for me to rate him a place hope.
Craig Widdison will be aiming for back-to-back cups with Willi Willi.
If Willi Willi can recapture his Wodonga Cup form, he has the class to be fighting out the finish.
I have Perfect Illusion going around and I thought he went terrific when running midfield in the Country Championships two starts back.
He went horrendous at his next start in Syndey when he copped a soft track which he just doesn't handle.
I expect him to improve sharply on top of the ground but he would need to if he was to earn a cheque after drawing barrier 17.