La Trobe University Vice-Chancellor John Dewar has laid out the tertiary provider's financial problems in an extensive message to staff flagging redundancies.
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An email was sent to all staff - who work across six campuses including Albury-Wodonga - on Tuesday afternoon.
"I apologise in advance if this message causes you anxiety ... but I see no point in hiding the truth of our situation," he wrote.
"I want to assure you that we will be doing everything we can to find the necessary additional revenue or cost savings to mitigate job losses.
"Even so, La Trobe University in the post-COVID-19 world will not look the same as we do now, or as we did last year.
"We will inevitably become a smaller institution; but with the right strategy, we can also become a stronger one."
A near-halving of international students studying with La Trobe and a further drop to come with the closure of borders has significantly contributed to a worst-case downturn of $350 million over two years.
The University has already found $72 million in savings - including $40 million from deferred capital spending and $7 million from standing down casual staff - but a projected shortfall this year of between $120 million and $150 million will need to be addressed, Professor Dewar said.
"As a first step, we plan to ask staff for expressions of interest in voluntary redundancy and pre-retirement contract programs, the details of which will be announced tomorrow," he said.
"We estimate that this will save us a further $5 million, depending on how many people volunteer. That would reduce the gap we need to find this year to $28 million to $58 million.
"If we closed the gap entirely through staff savings, this would be the financial equivalent of about 200 to 400 jobs. This does not mean that we will lose this number of roles but it gives you an indication of the scale of the challenge we face to bridge the budget gap caused by this crisis.
"We will, of course, continue to search for more savings in non-salary expenditure."
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Non-salary savings, voluntary redundancies and retirements and restructures are among the cost-saving measures being worked through, but the Vice-Chancellor warned if the budget gap is not closed, "we will have no alternative but to consider further job losses".
"This is our last resort and we are doing everything we can to avoid this," he said.
"The 2021 picture is even more challenging than 2020. The revenue shortfall, at $165 million to $200 million (19-23 per cent), is significantly higher than 2020.
"If we assume that $85 million of the cost savings we make this year will flow through to 2021, we will face a budget gap next year of between $80 million."
He thanked the staff for recent efforts and contributions to cost-savings.
"All of you have demonstrated extraordinary dedication and commitment to move our courses online in just one week; and you have demonstrated equally extraordinary care for our students and a commitment to their learning experience over the ensuing weeks," he said.
"I want to thank you for your support and hard work during these extremely challenging times."
More than 21,000 university jobs are expected to disappear in the next six months according to Universities Australia, and La Trobe has already announced a standing down of non-essential casual staff.
La Trobe is not eligible for the JobKeeper program.
Charles Sturt University is also undertaking job cuts.
