The ripple effect of China's barley tariffs could do more than just drive down prices locally, according to some southern Riverina grain growers.
The major export-partner has imposed a dumping margin of up to 73.6 per cent and a subsidy margin of up to 6.9 per cent on all barley imported from Australia, effective from May 19 in response to investigations.
For farmers in the south of the state, including with Alma Park farmer Graham Kotzur, concern is growing over the implications the tariffs will have for domestic prices.
"I did reduce barley planting this year anyway - partly for that reason but also because I thought there might have been an over supply with everyone putting it in which it still could be," he told The Border Mail.
"With the tariff itself - you could say there was something coming anyway but I didn't think it would have been that much.
"It is certainly going to affect the price, but hopefully the yields we get this year might make up for that price lost.
"The export is obviously going to be effected but I think the domestic demand and prices will also be impacted."
Graham finished sowing 400 hectares of barley in early May and said for the past four years it has been the best performing crop in the region.
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"Barley has been by far the best crop to grow around here gross margin wise," he said.
"It has out performed everything.
"Where this year it might be reversed.
"You just don't know how much grain is around because of all the rain they have had up north and of course all the barley out in the west."
While Graham agrees China is a major market and Australian producers can't ignore the demand, he said the market needs to expand to other countries.
"I think we should be more broader in the markets and not just rely so heavily on China as a major export," he said.
"I think we can look more at neighbouring areas such as Indonesia, India so the freight is not so bad either.
"Being self-sufficient in itself isn't really viable - we are an exporting country we grow too much that we can't use up ourselves so export has to happen, and there is a big market for it.
"China has a lot of people so there is a lot of import."
Graham has also sown 600 hectares of wheat and 500 hectares of canola.
He believes the impact of the tariffs will extend further than just the barley markets.
"I think it will have an impact on growers in our region, but I also think it will flow onto other grains as well," he said.
"There is always a margin between wheat and barley and that may stay but the wheat price may come off a bit because of it too."
National farming body GrainGrowers have expressed their "disappointment" at the tariff announcement and estimated they will cost the grain industry millions.
"These tariffs will disrupt and most likely halt exports by artificially increasing the price of Australian barley imported to China until the situation is resolved," general manager grower engagement Shona Gawel said.
"It is estimated this dispute could cost Australian grain industry and notably rural and regional economies at least $500 million per annum.
"The duties will disrupt the Australian barley market, cause ongoing market uncertainty and have a significant impact on participants in the Australian barley industry."