The Murray River will continue to flow at maximum capacity for the rest of summer to meet demand for water through the system.
Murray Darling Basin Authority executive director of river management Andrew Reynolds said yesterday the full range of scenarios from extremely dry to very wet had been considered, and the risk of shortfall was evident.
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A shortfall occurs when water cannot be delivered to users when and where it is needed.
"This year's annual operating outlook was first published in July 2020," he said.
"We have updated the outlook based on system conditions in late spring as typically we have received most of the year's inflow by then and have a clearer picture of the season ahead.
"The movement of water in the river system is now being finely balanced and there is an increased risk of a shortfall should there be a sudden spike in usage in parts of the river where water is not readily available."
Lake Hume is presently at 63 per cent capacity.