A survey of Perth's very hot summer to date has turned up some interesting results.
To start off with, I examined the number of times dating back to 1876 when Perth had significant heavy rain in the month of November like November of last year - which was the wettest on record.
There were 20 occasions, and only four others were followed by a significant hotter than normal summer in Perth. Two of them - the summer of 1996-97 and the summer of 1878-79 - seem to fit the pattern quite well.
For the 1996-97 summer, places further north like Moree and Roma had exccessive heat up to 44 degrees at the end of November 1996. During December 1996 and January 1997, they had well above-average rainfall. The highest temperature since the end of December has not reached 38 degrees at both Moree and Roma.
To date, exactly the same weather profile has happened at both places since the end of last November.
In north-east Victoria, the summer of 1996-97 was a dry one indeed, with maximum temperatures topping 40 degrees on several days in January and February of 1997.
For the summer of 1878-79, looking back to the autumn of 1878, Deniliquin had excessive rains during the March and April, which certainly happened in March and April of last year.
There was above-average rain in October 1878, which also happened in north-east Victoria at most places last October.
The summer of 1878-79 was noteworthy of temperatures reaching 44 degrees at both Bendigo and Deniliquin in late January 1879, and 42 in early February.
A welcome 100mm rain fell in February 1879 at some places in north-east Victoria. Interestingly, the year 1879 was exceptionally wet over most of inland NSW and near average in north-east Victoria.
Perth's hottest Januaries, taken alone without any reference to the previous two months, did in the long-term outlook lead up to a significant wet autumn and winter season in north-east Victoria.
Perth's hottest Januaries previously took place in 1880, 1896, 1962, 1974, 1978, 1992, 2010 and 2012. There was major flooding after most of these episodes in Victoria and New South Wales.