LIBERAL senator Greg Mirabella gives himself a less than 10 per cent chance of returning to the Upper House after the swing against the Coalition in the federal election.
The Wangaratta farmer was third on the Coalition Senate ticket behind Liberal Sarah Henderson and Wodonga-based National Bridget McKenzie.
Both of them will record the required quota for election but Senator Mirabella is reliant on preferences to net the sixth and last position.
He said given the shift in votes away from the Coalition his odds of being returned were "remote".
"Clearly it does not look good for me, mathematically it's a big ask from here," Senator Mirabella said.
"If the primary swing against the Liberal Party in the Lower House, of 5.7 per cent in Victoria is reflected in the Senate vote then it's just not enough to get three quotas."
The United Australia Party has been tipped to secure the last position based on counting to date.
The final result is not expected for weeks with Mr Mirabella's term due to finish on June 30 if he is unsuccessful in the vote.
"I'm really glad to have done it," Senator Mirabella said.
"I took on a casual vacancy in the full knowledge it might well be only for six months and so it appears it will prove to be.
"It has been interesting but I'm really disappointed on behalf of the Liberal Party and a lot of regional Victorians because the Liberal Party preselected me on the basis of being a regional Victorian."
Meanwhile, Labor candidate in Indi Nadia David said she was disappointed with her party's showing in the North East seat in the federal election.
She described the outcome as a personal "kick in the guts" considering the graft she had put in since being preselected last year.
The Labor Party drew a primary vote in Indi of 8.44 per cent, down from 2019 when former Wodonga councillor Eric Kerr netted 12 per cent.
Ms David said many Labor voters put Independent incumbent Helen Haines at No.1 and the party at No.2
The Greens vote also fell in Indi on Saturday, with a primary tally of 3.16 per cent for candidate Benjamin Gilbert compared to 4.21 in 2019.
Mr Gilbert was still pleased given the lack of spending on his campaign and the likelihood of Greens voters backing Dr Haines due to her drive for climate action.
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