RACE 1 TOP SELECTION
6. CHECK SIDE
A strong and tactical Super Maiden field gets Gold Cup day underway on a surface still in soft range but continuing to dry out. Confident we can get the ball rolling aboard this talented and still learning locally-trained 3YO by Scissor Kick third-up in his first proper preparation. Was very good late first-up after a checkered run in transit before being ridden quieter in similar company at Wagga and charging home to be beaten just over three lengths. Ideally would want further, but he's been given a 24 day freshen-up between runs and in a smaller field only has to be a few lengths off them at the 350m before unleashing a superior finish
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MAIN DANGERS: 1. Final Crack; 3. Rich Dispute
LIKELY TEMPO: Reasonable to solid
MY BET PLAN: CHECK SIDE to win & quinella: 1 and 6
RACE 2 TOP SELECTION
2. VAGUER
Always competitive at this level but can't go past this promising and progressive Rosehill-based 4YO by Lope de Vega after making a mess of weaker Class 1 opposition at Canberra 12 days ago, winning by seven lengths with still plenty in hand. While aided by a clear on-speed bias that day, it was only his second run off a 32-week break and previously had run the smart Reet Petite to a length. Carries the same weight here after the claim, and he looks destined to win far deeper races than this
MAIN DANGERS: 1. Easy Road; 4. Foxtrot Bravo; 7. Written Advice; 8. Heromania
LIKELY TEMPO: Fair to reasonable
MY BET PLAN: VAGUER to win and First Four: 2/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8
RACE 3 TOP SELECTION
4. RUMOURS ABOUND
Fast change of pace here right back to the five furlong dash and all aboard this exciting and powerful home track 4YO mare by Group 1 winner Press Statement resuming off a 31-week spell, with a gear change. Put two dominant wins together either side of a six month break last year before dropping out after leading in a much tougher Class 2 Highway at Randwick in late winter run on a Soft 7. Suffered setbacks and was immediately turned out again, but signalled she could do anything this preperation with a dominant trial win at Wagga 17 days ago. The more the track dries out, the better placed she is.
MAIN DANGERS: 1. Luna Rocks; 3. Outback Angel; 5. Ticklebelly
LIKELY TEMPO: Good
MY BET PLAN: RUMOURS ABOUND to win; Quinella: 3 & 4; Trifecta: 3,4/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5
RACE 4 TOP SELECTION
1. LEDECKY'S DREAM
Tough and wide sprint here with plenty of chances. Settled on this still improving and tough 4YO mare by globetrotting Group 1 winner Starspangledbanner from just over the Victorian border getting out in trip third-up off a six-week freshen. Stalked the speed before going home best in a Class 3 at Wagga. Then failed to finish off against similar opposition to this when parked just off the speed. Was $2.60 into $2.40 that day and the seven day turnaround suggests she's come on well enough from that outing
MAIN DANGERS: 3. Rich Result; 4. Shooting For Stars; 11. Prophet's Daughter
LIKELY TEMPO: Good to strong
MY BET PLAN: LEDECKY'S DREAM each-way
RACE 5
TOP SELECTION: 1. ASSOCIATE
SCRATCHED
MAIN DANGERS: 6. Indian Soldier; 7. Snap Book;
LIKELY TEMPO: Solid
MY BET PLAN: ASSOCIATE to win and trifecta: 1/6,7,9/6,7,9
RACE 6 TOP SELECTION
5. DEADLY PRESS
Now for the 3YOs and the first of the features. Very keen at the value aboard this progressive Victorian gelding by Group 1 winner Press Statement second-up since three runs in deeper black type metropolitan company last spring. Settled at the back resuming in a smaller Saturday BM 64 field at the Valley when making fair late ground but much fitter and better suited here back against his own age and dropping 3.5kg in weight. Can settle back around midfield here off the fence and be given his head at the 400m.
MAIN DANGERS: 2. Piercing Arrow; 3. Canny Hell; 4. Aichi Icon; 8. Direct Fire
LIKELY TEMPO: Reasonable to solid
MY BET PLAN: DEADLY PRESS to win and Quinella: 2 and 5
RACE 7 TOP SELECTION
3. FAWKNER PARK
The headline Gold Cup at Listed level arrives and confident this still lightly raced 5YO by Zoffany can find his best third-up getting out to this trip. Resumed behind two improving trials with a strong-finishing effort from well back in a deep BM 100 Handicap at Rosehill before may have found the surface too firm at Flemington when only grinding home in the Australian Cup Prelude over 1800m. Down in grade here carrying only a half kilo more and he boasts a superior career record once getting to this distance and beyond. Drawn to find a trail around midfield, and the "sting" being out of the surface is the big key to him running over them
MAIN DANGERS: 2. Redstone Well; 6. Miracle Spin; 8. Blackcomb
LIKELY TEMPO: Fair to reasonable
MY BET PLAN: FAWKNER PARK to win & Quinella: 3 and 6
RACE 8 TOP SELECTION
9. LOVE SHUCK
Always an exciting finale to the carnival when they fly over the short Flat Knacker course and there's terrific value here aboard this lightly raced and resuming Canberra 3YO by Japanese sire Mikki Isle. Won first-up in a country Class 2 last preparation before holding his own in consecutive Saturday Class 3 Highways. All three wins from only six starts have come when fresh, looked right up the mark winning a recent country trial and he gets in well on the limit weight. Watch for him settling off the speed and thundering home late.
MAIN DANGERS: 1. Sparring; 10. Projeto
LIKELY TEMPO: Strong
MY BET PLAN: LOVE SHUCK to win and Box Exacta: 1,7,9
MY BEST EARLY BETS
R1 6. CHECK SIDE, Approx: $3.75 - $4.00; My Early Market Rating: $2.25
R3 4. RUMOURS ABOUND, Approx: $2.85 - $3.50; My Early Rating: $2.00
R5 1. ASSOCIATE Approx: $3.00 - $3.25; My Early Market Rating: $2.15
MY BEST EARLY VALUE
R6 5. DEADLY PRESS, Approx: $5.50 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.20
My BEST EARLY EXOTICS
R3: TRIFECTA: 3,4/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5
R6: QUINELLA: 2 & 5
