A complex low which originated in Queensland during mid-January moved to the far west of Queensland and brought very high temperatures of 46 degrees to Wilcannia, Tibooburra and Whitecliffs near the end of January and then a heavy rain band formed in the far west of northern NSW bringing heavy falls to those three towns during Monday, February 5. There was a very similar situation looking at the past records in 1898, 1954, 1976 and 1997 for those three towns. It was decidedly hotter and drier during the autumn season in Victoria, particularly from the end of March to the third week of April.

The rain at these three towns did advance into parts of eastern Victoria with isolated thunderstorms; the heaviest falls near 100 millimetres at Mount Buffalo, Falls Creek, Mount Hotham and at Eurobin, which had 93 millimetres to 9am Tuesday, February 6. Dew point temperatures on the Monday were very high at 4pm with 23 degrees recorded at Wangaratta, equal to the normal values this time of year at Townsville.

It has been unusually very dry in Broome since the beginning of November with only 20.8 millimetres against an average of 205 for the November to January period. Other very dry November to January periods were in 1902-03, 1921-22, 1932-33, 1969-70, 1987-88 and 1991-92. All these brought mostly above average summer rainfalls either in December or January in our regions which also happened this summer at a majority of towns.

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The driest November to January period at Broome was 10.1 millimetres in 1921-22 in which Mildura was the only town in Victoria to record over 40 degrees. Mildura also was the only town in Victoria to record over 40 degrees during both November and December just recently. Yan Yean Reservoir recorded its wettest January day with 60 millimetres since 82.6 in 1922. All these past cases of dry November to January periods in Broome all lead to noteworthy high temperatures in the following April all the way from inland Queensland right down to Victoria including Melbourne. In Melbourne the highest temperature reached very high temperatures well over 30 degrees in both April 1967 and 1968 and this also occurred in April 1865 and 1866, 102 years back.

April 2024 is now in line with the hottest April on record of 1922 all the way to as far north as Cloncurry. Melbourne did record its hottest Easter on record in April 1922 during the third week of that April. But there were many places which did record very high temperatures either at the end of March/beginning of April 1922 and this does put us in line to the hottest Easter ever recorded. These places do include Rutherglen 32.5 degrees, Deniliquin 36.1, Wilcannia 38.9, Tibooburra 37.1, Dubbo 36.6, Walgett 37.8, Bourke 39.4, Coonabarabran 33, Moree 39, St George 36.8, Charleville 38.8 and Cloncurry 38.

The warmest April then recorded at Roma Post Office was 31.2 degrees in 1922 and this was overtaken by 31.7 in 1957. Last year in Coonabarabran the rainfall pattern was very similar to that of 1937 and a few other towns also showed a similar trend. The autumn of 1938 was notably drier and warmer than normal from Victoria right up to Charleville but much needed rainfall arrived by the end of May 1938 in NSW and Queensland and later in Victoria early June of 1938.

The hot, dry conditions I do expect from the end of February to end of April in our regions will be of great concern with increasing fire danger. Back in April 1962 a late heatwave occurred on Anzac Day in Victoria and on the next two days bushfires around Lorne saw the loss of a few homes.