Last week, Alice Springs recorded 57 millimetres rainfall over three days, more than double the November average of 27 millimetres over 146 years of records.
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This rainfall followed more than three months of zero rainfall at the Alice. Past cases of very dry such conditions included 1881, 1893, 1914, 1951 and 2002. Out of these cases the summer seasons following were notably warmer than usual. December had the tendency to be wetter than average, January itself was hotter and drier with maximum temperatures reaching as high as 44 degrees in Victoria, 46 in the Riverina and northwards to as far as Longreach at many places. Heavy rain fell at most places during February which was still notably warmer than normal. March itself was also wetter than average at most places in our regions.
Longreach on Thursday, November 16, recorded 44.4 degrees almost a record high for mid-November in 133 years of records. Other very high mid-November maximum temperatures were in 1898, 1904, 1915, 1951, 1965, 1990, 2003 and 2009. Out of these past episodes once again the summers following were notably warmer than average in our regions. Heavy rain and thunderstorms did occur either late December or early January at many places, and again in mid-February.
Darwin has recorded only 46 millimetres since the start of October up to November 21 and is well down from the average October-November rainfall of 213 millimetres. Previous very dry such periods in Darwin were in 1896, 1902, 1913, 1925, 1929, 1946, 1976, 1989 and 2006. Most of the nation including Victoria had a hotter than normal summer after all these past episodes.
The current synoptic weather chart of the past four days shows a lengthy belt of high pressure from south of Western Australia through to all the way just east of Tasmania with centres of low pressures over inland parts of the nation. This situation is more typical of mid-summer rather than late spring. Humidity has increased since the wind flows have turned more easterly to north easterly and afternoon and evening thunderstorms have resulted. Further thunderstorms are expected with no change in the pressure pattern up to next weekend.
Daily maximum temperatures in northern Victoria have risen a couple of degrees above the November normal, but have continued below normal in southern Victoria. Melbourne has had 11 successive days of below normal maximums, the longest in November since 1956. In southern Victoria places like Wonthaggi, Berwick, Wilsons Promontory, and Warrugul, which had one of their wettest Octobers on record, are all facing their driest November since 1895 or 1911 or 1918. Only 10 millimetres has fallen up to November 22.
Further north up to as far north as Longreach there has been scattered thunderstorm activity but with variable rainfall totals. St George recorded 76.6 millimetres on November 20, the third wettest November day in 143 years of records. Nearby towns managed only 10 millimetres. Moree and Coonabarabran had heavy falls since November 19 and both towns have recorded over 100 millimetres for this month.
Hotter days are expected late November and early December, up to 38 degrees.
